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Thread: Cryptocurrency Analysis

  1. #111
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    BTC. Sellers in control, downward target set at $9,350
    10 September 2019

    Industry news:
    Chairman of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Jay Clayton has said that the organization is getting ever closer to finally approving a bitcoin ETF. However, Clayton went onto warn that further work needs to be done to avoid the manipulation of price and make sure the market is transparent.

    Technical view:
    b-p-100919.jpg

    Bitcoin did exactly what I expected last yesterday and our downward target is still expected at the price of $9.350

    Pink lines – Larger symmetrical triangle in play

    Black lines - Channel

    Green falling line – Expected path

    Nothing specially changed since my yesterday's analysis.I still still expect potential new wave down for potential fulfill of the lower symmetrical triangle boundary. Additionally, I found that momentum on the upside decreasing in last up wave, which is indication for the weak buyers on the market. Key support is at $9.350 and resistance at $11.000 and $11.200. Bulls need to be very cautious as there is strong aggressive selling from the key resistance. As long as the Bitcoin is trading below $11.200, I would watch for selling opportunities. Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies on lower frames 5/15 for better timing. Most recently, I found rejection of the middle Bollinger band, which is another confirmation for the downward continuation.



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  2. #112
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    Trading strategy for Bitcoin on September 10th. After what time is each Bitcoin owner guaranteed to make a profit?

    Bitcoin – 4H.
    b-k-100919.jpg
    On September 9, the BTC rate continues to fall in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% ($9788), which is the first target on the way to the lower line of the tapering triangle or the upward trend line, to which I expect to descend in the coming days and weeks. A signal to drop BTC was received yesterday morning, as cryptocurrencies closed at Fibo level of 61.8% ($10256). I still do not consider buying "cue ball" before closing quotes over the area of $10907 - $11089 and, accordingly, over the downward trend line. This is the technical picture of the "cue ball" on September 10.

    Now, as for the news from the cryptocurrency segment. An interesting study was conducted to find out what is the period between buying bitcoin and guaranteed profit for absolutely every investor. It turned out that this period takes about 3 years and 8 months. Of course, we are talking about every investor who has at least one bitcoin in his portfolio. Those who sold BTC for $19500 made profits a few days later. And those who bought for $ 19,500 are not the fact that they will ever receive it at all. Nevertheless, current research provides such averages.

    Meanwhile, in Japan, at the 6th international conference on the regulation of cryptocurrencies, it was proposed to transfer the forex market to stablecoins. It is assumed that such a solution can save banks liquidity, which in the context of a possible recession of the world economy is a useful solution for the banking systems of many countries. At the moment, the forex market is a decentralized market that does not have a single control center. And the exchange rate of a particular currency is determined by many transactions in the interbank network, access to which only very large financial institutions have access to.

    Even more interesting news is coming from the Bitcoin network itself. According to the statistics website Blokchain.info, the hash rate will soon reach three digits. This suggests that miners are increasing production capacity since in 2020 the so-called halving will take place, which will halve the profit for one mined block. Accordingly, if the price of bitcoin does not grow twice by that time, then bitcoin mining will become twice less profitable. Moreover, since the reward will be reduced by half, some of the equipment (mostly old) can be thrown into the landfill, since, using it for mining, the costs will exceed revenues. Therefore, more miners want to have time to get as many "cue balls" as possible, while the price is high enough, and halving is not soon.


    Overall results:
    Bitcoin continues to fall in price, although at a low pace. Based on the picture in the illustration, the most likely option is a decrease in the area of $ 9300 - $9400. I don't see any prerequisites for other development of an event now. I still recommend considering Bitcoin purchases after the appearance of trend change signals.

    The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.

    Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
    Bitcoin performed consolidation under the Fibo level of 61.8%. Thus, I recommend selling a cryptocurrency with the goals of $9788 (76.4% of Fibonacci),$ 9566 (38.2% of Fibonacci) and $9400 (the bottom line of the triangle).

    I do not recommend buying bitcoin now, as the cryptocurrency remains in a narrowing triangle.



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  3. #113
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    Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 11 September 2019

    Crypto Industry News:
    Facebook's Stablecoin, Libra, must meet the highest anti-money laundering (AML) and terrorist financing standards, as stated by Undersecretary of the Treasury Ministry of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, Sigal Mandelker.

    According to the publication, Sigal Mandelker told reporters in Geneva that every cryptocurrency - including Libra - operating in the United States must meet local regulatory standards.

    Financial regulators around the world have concerns about Libra, and key European Central Bank official, Yves Mersch, recently said that Facebook's stablecoin is "captivating but treacherous" at an ECB legal conference.

    A delegation of US regulators visited Switzerland, where Libra is based to investigate the project and meet with local regulators. The visit, however, did not alleviate the fears of US regulators.

    Facebook is also trying to influence US regulators by increasing lobbying efforts by employing a lobbying company at the end of August, followed by two more lobbyists.

    Interestingly, Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, gave a more original opinion when he suggested the transformation of the global financial system by replacing the US dollar with a digital currency similar to Facebook Libra.


    Technical Market Overview:
    The BTC/USD pair has hit the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $9,882 during the expansion of the corrective cycle in the wave 2 of a higher degree. Despite the fact, that the typical target level for correction was hit, the market is still trading below the short-term trendline resistance and the bounce from $9,882 was rather shallow. It might suggest, that the corrective cycle has not been completed yet and there is more downside to come. The next technical support is seen at the level of $9,704 - $9,645.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $12,244
    WR2 - $11,525
    WR1 - $10,919

    Weekly Pivot - $10,260
    WS1 - $9,607
    WS2 - $8,906
    WS3 - $8,306


    Trading Recommendations:
    The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The wave 2 corrective cycles is about to be completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,231 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.

    b-s-110919.jpg



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  4. #114
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    Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 11 September 2019

    Crypto Industry News:
    Leading ASIC excavator manufacturer, Bitmain, announced the release of two new S17 devices. Two new mining systems, namely S17e and T17e, will be launched today. The company claims that both new models contain improvements that should translate into higher performance, more stable operation and longer life.

    Bitmain also published the specifications of both newly announced mining machines. S17e has a hash rate of 64 TH / s and works with an energy efficiency of 45J / TH, while T17e offers a hash rate of 53TH / s and energy efficiency of 55J / TH.

    Both S17e and T17e are equipped with a two-pipe heat dissipation system, which is reported to improve the equipment's efficiency in terms of its removal. This should increase the life of the equipment and its stability.

    What's more, Bitmain also claims that the software embedded in the two new ASICs has higher cyber security standards to prevent malicious attacks.

    The company also announced compensation for late delivery. Under this new initiative, customers whose deliveries are delayed will receive compensation from Bitmain in the form of coupons for each day of delay.


    Technical Market Overview:
    Not much has changed on the ETH/USD market as the price is still locked inside a narrow horizontal trading zone located between the levels of $175.25 - $183.43. In order to regain control of the market, the bulls will have to make a new swing high again and head towards the level of $193.52 in an impulsive fashion, otherwise, the bears might push the prices lower towards the support at $172 and $164.81 again. The larger time frame trend is still bearish and despite the potential termination of the wave 2 of the higher degree, the market participants still did not make the price to rally significantly.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $207.64
    WR2 - $195.13
    WR1 - $188.15

    Weekly Pivot - $176.09
    WS1 - $169.04
    WS2 - $156.97
    WS3 - $149.69


    Trading Recommendations:
    The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the lower wave degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $202.59 and $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

    e-s-110919.jpg



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  5. #115
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    Trading strategy for Bitcoin on September 11th. The real bitcoin dominance index reaches 95%

    Bitcoin – 4H.
    b-k-110919.jpg

    On September 10, the BTC rate fell to the correction level of 76.4% ($9788), which is the first goal on the way to the upward trend line, according to my expectations outlined in previous forecasts. The breakdown of the "cue ball" quotes from the indicated level will allow the number 1 cryptocurrency in the world to rise slightly, however, in general, I expect a fall to the Fibo level of 38.2% ($9566) and the trend line. Today, the divergence is not observed in any indicator. I also remind you that according to the John Bollinger's forecast, "if the bulls fail to significantly improve their positions this week (meaning last week), then Bitcoin will face a serious drop, down to the levels of $4000 - $5000". I believe that the bulls were not able to leap up, the downward trend kept the BTC from strong growth. Now, let's see if the upward trend line of Bitcoin can keep from a strong fall.

    Meanwhile, Blockstream CEO Adam Back reports that the bitcoin dominance index is currently returning to normal levels of 90%. Back says that until June 2016, this index never dropped below 99%. The real value of the index is now 95% if we exclude from the calculations the stablecoins and USDT (cryptocurrency tied to fiat money).

    "The brilliant forecast" was made by the Head of ShapeShift crypto exchange Erik Voorhees. He believes that the BTC cryptocurrency will grow above $20000 per coin by the end of the year, but immediately declares that "he usually makes mistakes in forecasts." Voorhees believes that any cryptocurrency is a long-term project and extremely speculative. Thus, Voorhees advises every investor to own bitcoins but to realize that it can completely devalue and the "bubble" will burst. The international interbank system SWIFT does not consider bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to be competitors. The only cryptocurrency that SWIFT does justice to is Facebook's Libra. All other cryptocurrencies cannot affect the sphere of payments in the short term, according to SWIFT.


    Overall results:
    Bitcoin continues to fall in price, although not too fast. Based on the picture in the illustration, the most likely option is a decrease in the area of $9300 - $9400. The BTC rebound from the level of 76.4% allows to expect small growth of quotations, but the untrained goals of about $9566 and $9350 are forced to expect a decrease. If bitcoin, as I expect it, reaches the bottom line of the triangle, then the fate of the cryptocurrency will be decided around it.

    The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


    Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
    Bitcoin performed consolidation under the Fibo level of 61.8%. Thus, I recommend selling a cryptocurrency with the targets of $9788 (76.4% of Fibonacci),$9566 (38.2% of Fibonacci) and $ 9400 (the bottom line of the triangle). About the first goal, you can partially take profits or exit transactions and wait for the situation to develop.

    I do not recommend buying bitcoin now, as the cryptocurrency remains in a narrowing triangle, which implies a drop in the price of the "cue ball".


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  6. #116
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    BTC. Sellers in control, downward target set at $9,350
    11 September 2019

    Industry news:
    The intraday polarity in the bias of Gold and Bitcoin showed an uneasiness of investors towards putting money in the latter. Morgan Creek Capital co-founder & partner Anthony Pompliano in June projected monetary easing policies as breeding grounds for bitcoin bulls, stating that a drop in the value of fiat currencies would create demand for non-sovereign assets/currencies like bitcoin. Meanwhile, noted economist Alex Kruger said that only speculators – for now – can drive the price of bitcoin higher, not institutional investors..

    Technical view:
    b-p-110919.jpg

    Bitcoin did exactly what I expected yesterday and our downward target is still expected at the price of $9.350

    Pink lines – Larger symmetrical triangle in play

    Black lines - Channel

    Green falling line – Expected path

    Most recently, I found that there is first lower high and lower low on 4H time-frame, which is indication that short-term down trend is gaining power . There is also rejection of the middle Bollinger band, which adds more potential downside. I still expect potential new wave down for potential fulfill of the lower symmetrical triangle boundary.. Key support is at $9.350 and resistance at $11.000 and $11.200. Bulls need to be very cautious as there is strong aggressive selling from the key resistance. As long as the Bitcoin is trading below $11.200, The level around $10,000 looks like a decent sell zone if you already don't have sell on Bitcoin.



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  7. #117
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    Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 12 September 2019

    Crypto Industry News:
    Jay Clayton, chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), gave information in a television interview about the regulator's latest approach to Bitcoin ETFs.

    In an interview, the President of the SEC stated that while significant steps were taken to address regulatory problems in relation to the investment fund, "work remains to be done".

    "Given that they are traded on largely unregulated exchanges [...] how can we be sure that these prices are not subject to significant manipulation? Now we are making progress, but people had to answer these difficult questions to be sure that this is the right kind of product, "he said.

    Clayton mentioned earlier that the commission was working to make Bitcoin ETF an option for US investors, but highlighted the need for security on regulated markets, saying:

    "We do it, but there are a few things we need to feel comfortable with. The first is trust: trust has long been a requirement in our markets, and if you say you have something, you really do have it," he said finally.


    Technical Market Overview:
    Despite the fact, that the typical target level for correction was hit (61% Fibonacci at $9,882), the BTC/USD pair is still trading below the short-term trendline resistance and the bounce from $9,882 was rather shallow. It might suggest, that the corrective cycle has not been completed yet and there is more downside to come. The next technical support is seen at the level of $9,704 - $9,645, but in a case of a breakout higher, the nearest target for bulls is seen at the level of $10,331 and $10,481.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $12,244
    WR2 - $11,525
    WR1 - $10,919

    Weekly Pivot - $10,260
    WS1 - $9,607
    WS2 - $8,906
    WS3 - $8,306


    Trading Recommendations:
    The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The wave 2 corrective cycles is about to be completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,231 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.

    b-s-120919.jpg


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  8. #118
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    Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 12 September 2019

    Crypto Industry News:
    Mastercard began working with Blockchain R3 to develop a cross-border payment solution.

    According to a press release published by Mastercard, both companies plan to pilot a new cross-border payment solution using Blockchain technology. The system will focus on connecting global infrastructure for faster payments, systems and banks.

    The announcement is part of Mastercard's plans to strengthen the cross-border payment network, building on the acquisition of the global payment company Transfast, which took place earlier this year. The partnership with R3 is part of the payment giant's strategy, where customers choose the method of transferring funds.

    "Developing a new and better solution in the field of B2B cross-border payments by improving global connectivity in the area of the account - the account is key to the ambition of Mastercard. Our goal is to provide global payment and communications infrastructure, as evidenced by our recent strategic acquisitions and partnerships, including our relations with R3, "said Executive Vice President of the new Mastercard payment platforms, Peter Klein.

    The partnership builds on previous relationships between the two companies, which also came out publicly earlier this month when Mastercard joined the Corded R3 Marco Polo Network to finance trade.


    Technical Market Overview:
    The ETH/USD market as the price is still locked inside a narrow horizontal trading zone located between the levels of $172.82 - $183.43. Recently, the price has started to move slightly down again, towards the lower range boundary located at $172.82. In order to regain control of the market, the bulls will have to make a new swing high again and head towards the level of $193.52 in an impulsive fashion, otherwise, the bears might push the prices lower towards the support at $172 and $164.81 again. The larger time frame trend is still bearish and despite the potential termination of the wave 2 of the higher degree, the market participants still did not make the price to rally significantly.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $207.64
    WR2 - $195.13
    WR1 - $188.15

    Weekly Pivot - $176.09
    WS1 - $169.04
    WS2 - $156.97
    WS3 - $149.69


    Trading Recommendations:
    The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the lower wave degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $202.59 and $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

    e-s-120919.jpg



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  9. #119
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    Trading strategy for Bitcoin on September 12th. Bitcoin is heading for a long-term goal of $4,000?

    Bitcoin – 4H.
    b-k-120919.jpg

    On September 11, Bitcoin rebounded from the correction level of 76.4% ($9788) and a small increase. However, the tendency of bitcoin to fall remains, as the quotes remain within the tapering triangle formed by the two trend lines. Since the "cue ball" quotes rebound from the upper line, I expect the fall to the bottom line, which is located near the price value of $9350. This level is the maximum potential fall in the current conditions. A further drop in BTC quotes will be possible if traders manage to close below the trend line. In this case, bitcoin may decline in the medium term to the target levels of $4000 - $5000 per coin indicated by John Bollinger. I recommend buying cryptocurrency after the price goes beyond the triangle through the upper trend line, that is, under current conditions, not lower than the levels of $10400 - $10500. Or after the rebound from the bottom trend line.

    A new interesting forecast came from one of the famous crypto experts, based on the study of the cyclical complexity of cryptocurrency mining. Based on the expert's considerations, only the growth and fall of the capacities required for mining are cyclical. The crypto expert correlated the complexity of block mining (that is, the volume of production capacity and costs) with the value of bitcoin. Based on calculations, the new maximum value of bitcoin is $31000. However, the analysis does not say when BTC can reach these figures.

    Meanwhile, an increasing number of analysts note a decrease in the maximum value of bitcoin on the 4-24 hourly charts. This phenomenon is visible to the naked eye. It is this factor that can speak in favor of a further decline in the quotes of the "cue ball", and confirmation of this scenario will be the closure under the lower line of the triangle, which we have already written above.

    Another interesting forecast came from a well-known analyst and one of the founders of Fundstrat Global Advisors Tom Lee. According to Lee, the Fed's rate cut may lead to an increase in the value of bitcoin, and by the end of the year, the cryptocurrency will grow to $20000 per coin. According to Lee, bitcoin is used by investors to hedge risks, and the rate cut by the central bank causes an increase in volatility, which applies both to the transfer of funds to high-risk assets and hedging instruments. From my point of view, this is a very controversial statement, and we have heard a lot of such forecasts from "experts". However, while bitcoin is getting cheaper, and its most important peaks (there are two of them and they are visible on the monthly or weekly chart) says the opposite: Bitcoin is preparing to fall to $4000 per coin, since the second upward impulse was much weaker than the first, when bitcoin reached almost $20000.


    Overall results:
    Bitcoin continues to become cheaper, though at a low pace. Based on the picture in the illustration, the most likely option is a decrease in the area of $9300 - $9400. The rebound of BTC from the trend line will allow traders to count on the growth of the "cue ball" quote to $10000 - $10500. But more likely, from my point of view, there is still an option with a fall much lower than $9350.

    The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


    Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
    Bitcoin performed a rebound from the Fibo level of 76.4%. However, I recommend that you still consider sales with targets of $9788 (76.4% of Fibonacci), $9566 (38.2% of Fibonacci) and $9350 (the bottom line of the triangle). I do not recommend buying bitcoin now, as the cryptocurrency remains in a narrowing triangle, which implies a fall in the price.



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  10. #120
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    BTC. Important short-term resitance on the test at $11,400, watch for sell opportunities
    12 September 2019

    Bitcoin 4H time-frame:
    b-p-120919.jpg

    MACD oscillator on the 4H is not showing any new momentum up on the recent rally, which is sign of the weak buying. Important resistance at the price of $10,400 is on the test and you should be careful with long positions. I didn't find any reaction after the ECB meeting today, which is indication that no institutional money is involved into Bitcoin for now.


    Bitcoin Forecast and recommendations for traders:
    Bitcoin is in overall consolidation phase but most recently I found weak bullish momentum on the MACD oscillator, which is sign that there is chance for more downside and potential of $9,855 or $9,350. Thus, I recommend selling cryptocurrency with the first target at $9,855.



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