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Thread: Cryptocurrency Analysis

  1. #171
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    BTC. Sell zone for Bitcoin, bearish flag in creation
    08 October 2019

    BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $8,190. Anyway,I found that bearish flag is in creation based on the 1H time-frame and that there is possibility for more downside.

    b-p-081019.jpg

    Purple lines – Bear flag

    Purple falling line – Expected path

    Green rectangle – Important support levels

    Red Rectangle – Resistance zone

    My advice is to watch for selling opportunities on the BTC since it is still in the downtrend. The downward channel is active and there is more chance for downside. Potential downward targets are set at the price of $8,054 and $7,770.




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  2. #172
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    What will the looped sideways lead to, to a cold winter or is there still a chance of growth? Bitcoin (October 8)

    The cryptocurrency market has sagged very much since the end of September. The first cryptocurrency has lost an average of 20% relative to the $ 10,000 milestone, focusing within the $ 7,800 mark in the end. After that, disappointed investors went into the stage of a sluggish fluctuation of 7800/8500, where the quotation is still located. The return of the harsh winter of 2018 to colic scares already frightened traders. The cryptocurrency market is disappointingly declining, IEO, an analogue of the ICO hype, does not bring a decent profit and is already disappointingly going into existence. On the other hand, the launch of the Bakkt crypto platform, from which an influx of institutional investors was expected, was launched with ridiculous trading volumes, and regulators are increasingly skeptical about the future of the crypto industry. In the end, we have what we have, but I think this is not the end.

    b-g-081019a.jpg

    Digest of days gone by:
    A lawsuit for $ 1.4 trillion was filed against the cryptocurrency Tether and Bitfinex exchange. According to lawyers, in this case, there is a violation of the antitrust laws and the law "On commodity exchanges", since Tether controls more than 80% of the stablecoins market in the USA and the world. The exchange is also accused of manipulation, money laundering and the provision of knowingly false information.

    Not the best information for the crypto industry, but similar raids on the Bitfinex structure have already been in history. Let's see how things go this time.

    German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz called on EU leaders to create a cryptocurrency analogue of the euro so as not to lag behind the US, China and Russia, as well as private companies that create digital payment assets.

    These calls from the Europeans have already sounded before, but to a greater extent - the result is zero.

    The World Federation of Exchanges [WFE] turned to the financial regulator of Britain [FCA] with a request not to prohibit cryptocurrency derivatives trading in the country for retail investors. Let me remind you that the World Federation of Exchanges unites 70 operators, such as ICE, Nasdaq, Deutsche Boerse, CME, etc.

    The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has contributed to the current market once again by stating that they do not consider Bitcoin to be valuable paper, as investors are not dependent on third parties for making a profit. Valdis Dombrovskis, Vice President of the European Commission [EC] for Financial Services and Economics, has promised that the EC will introduce new rules for regulating the cryptocurrency industry, but with one comment - its re-election to this position.

    As we can see, the information background has a considerable burden of alertness, which fully reflects the current behavior of the first cryptocurrency [BTC].

    b-g-081019b.jpg

    What do we have on the trading chart?
    Monday favored Bitcoin, and the quote locally managed to increase as much as $ 444, but this did not change anything in the current situation since we continue to fluctuate within the given frames 7800/8500.

    What are the assumptions for further development? At the moment, nothing dramatic in terms of changing market sentiment is visible. Movement in a given amplitude [7800/8500] can still be maintained throughout the week. The speculative mood is very skeptical, and it is necessary for some kind of clear impulse here in terms of information in the form of the hope of traders that the harsh winter of 2018 is postponed. Perhaps, a yield higher than 8800-9000 will give optimism to speculators, but I think not earlier than this. Therefore, we sit outside the market and observe what is happening, preferably in USD, and as soon as there is a prerequisite for the movement in the region of 8800-9000, you can go for an exchange of USD ---> BTC.

    Key coordinates for the upward direction: 8500; 9400; 10000; 10,950; 12330; 13130; 13970.

    Key coordinates for the downward direction: 7800; 7000; 6500; 6000.

    The general background of the cryptocurrency market
    Analyzing the general market capitalization, we see a very sluggish development in the range of $ 209 and $ 225 billion. Over a month, more than $ 62 billion was lost from the piggy bank of total market capitalization, At the moment, we are at around $ 222.19 billion.

    If we consider the volume chart in general terms, then the current ceilings are 225 ---> 272 ---> 281 ---> 320 ---> 356 ---> $ 385 billion.

    b-g-081019c.jpg

    The index of emotions, which is also fear and the euphoria of the crypto market, is surprisingly at 39p, which is almost the same as it was in September before the fall. Nevertheless, optimism among crypto enthusiasts still persists. Thus, let's hope for the best.

    b-g-081019d.jpg

    Indicator analysis
    Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators on the short and intraday interval signal about purchases, and the medium-term outlook about sales. It is worthwhile to understand that the price movement is in a given range as written above, and, obviously, depending on the development of a particular boundary, the indicators on the short-term and intraday interval will change. That is, we have local indicators, taken into account in the work.

    b-g-081019e.jpg




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  3. #173
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    Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 09 October 2019

    Crypto Industry News:
    The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has once again officially stated that Bitcoin is not a security. In a letter to Cipher Technologies, Bitcoin Fund SEC rejected the investment company's registration statement, justifying (among other things) that Bitcoin is not a security. According to a letter, Cipher tried to register an "investment company" in accordance with the 1940 Investment Companies Act, suggesting that Bitcoin is a security.

    In turn, SEC employees counter-argued the reason for Cipher as part of the Howey test and the Digital Asset Analysis Framework published in April.

    "We do not believe that current Bitcoin buyers rely on the necessary managerial and entrepreneurial efforts of others to make a profit. Therefore, since Cipher intends to invest essentially all its assets in Bitcoin under the current structure, it does not meet the definition of an" investment company "in accordance with the Act on investment companies and incorrectly submitted the N-2 form "- we read.

    In addition, the SEC also noted that if Bitcoin were security, "it would cause significant other problems." More specifically, the cryptocurrency would be "an unregistered, publicly offered security and, among other things, would potentially make the proposed fund a guarantor of Bitcoins."

    Finally, the securities regulator also noted that Cipher did not comply with legal and investor protection standards, respectively. The letter ends with the statement that "SEC employees will not carry out additional verification of Cipher in its current form."


    Technical Market Overview:
    The BTC/USD pair did not move out of the narrow price range located between the levels of $7,676 - $8,474 and the global investors keep waiting for the breakout. The bottom of the wave (A) at the level of $7,676 is then in the center of attention of bears now and if violated, then the next technical support is located at $7,405. The increasing downside momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $9,064
    WR2 - $8,729
    WR1 - $8,221

    Weekly Pivot - $7,955
    WS1 - $7,433
    WS2 - $7,138
    WS3 - $6,572


    Trading recommendations:
    Due to the short-term impulsive scenario invalidation, the best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

    b-s-091019.jpg



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    Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 09 October 2019

    Crypto Industry News:
    The World Federation of Exchanges (WFE), a global trading association of publicly regulated exchanges, has asked the UK Financial Supervision Authority (FCA) not to limit cryptocurrency derivatives to retail investors.

    WFE issued a statement today in response to a consultative document from the UK financial regulator regarding a potential ban on the use of cryptocurrency derivatives, such as futures contracts for Bitcoins and other cryptocurrency-related trading products. The WFE proposed that the FCA instead develop appropriate consumer protection.

    WFE has included in its reply a number of recommendations, such as the potential implementation of standards for the above products, consideration of basic market structures and review of the ban - if it is introduced - in order to provide consumers with choice and access among others.

    WFE Chief Executive Nandini Sukumar called on the authorities to create appropriate provisions enabling further market development, stating:

    "Although cryptographic products have real potential, the market has suffered from unregulated suppliers distributing inappropriate products. Market infrastructures that meet stringent regulatory requirements include consumer protection under their mandate and understand that integrity is fundamental to well-functioning markets, they are best prepared to supply these products and support a growing market. "

    WFE includes major exchanges from around the world, including the Nasdaq, CME Group, Korea Exchange, London Stock Exchange and Deutsche Boerse.


    Technical Market Overview:
    The recent low on ETH/USD was made at the level of $166.08, just above the local technical support located at the level of $163.98 - $162.50 and if the momentum will increase on the way up, then the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $187.37 and 195.88. Any violation of support located at the level of $166.08 will open the road towards the key technical support located at the level of $151.30. Currently, the market is hovering around the level of $180.00, but the bulls do not look ready for a breakout as the momentum is still decreasing, so the horizontal trend most likely will continue.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $200.05
    WR2 - $192.33
    WR1 - $180.15

    Weekly Pivot - $172.02
    WS1 - $159.46
    WS2 - $151.65
    WS3 - $138.64


    Trading recommendations:
    The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

    e-s-091019.jpg




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  5. #175
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    BTC. Sell zone for Bitcoin, important resistance on the test

    BTC is did reach our yesterdays' target at the price of $8,050 but then rejected strongly. BTC is the momentum UP but resistance at the price of $8,500 is on the test and I would not watch for any upward opportunities as long as the resistance is on the test. BTC might rotate lower and test $8,320.

    b-p-091019.jpg

    Red rectangle – Important resistance levels

    Yellow rectangle – Resistance become support

    Purple falling line – Expected path

    Strong resistance at the price of $8,500 is on the test and I would prefer potential selling opportunities. Watch for potential sell divergence on the MACD oscillator on 15/30 time-frame to confirm further downside rotation. Resistance levels are seen at $8,500 and $8,800. The support level is set at the price of $8,300.




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    Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 10 October 2019

    Crypto Industry News:
    European Commissioner for Finance, Valdis Dombrovskis, has promised to propose new regulations governing cryptocurrencies, such as Facebook Libra.

    According to financial media reports, speaking to EU legislators, Dombrovskis said:

    "Europe needs a common approach to crypto-assets such as Libra. I intend to propose new legislation in this area."

    Dombrovskis, who was the Prime Minister and Minister of Finance of Latvia and a Member of the European Parliament in the years 2004–2009, is currently seeking reappointment as the Vice-President of the European Commission.

    If he were re-appointed, he would be given the task of "an economy that works for the people" and would still be responsible for the Commission's financial services portfolio and its work on "deepening economic and monetary union", as emphasized by the chairwoman Ursula von der Leyen.

    In addition to emphasizing the need for new legislation on cryptocurrencies in Europe, Dombrovskis spoke of the need for the EU to address "unfair competition, cybersecurity, and threats to financial stability".


    Technical Market Overview:
    The BTC/USD pair has broken through the technical resistance located at the level of $8,474 (now support) and made a fresh new local high at the level of $8,647. The momentum is increasing, so the next target for bulls after the breakout is done is seen at the level of $9,046. If this will be the impulsive wave upward, then the low located at the level of $7,676 will be confirmed as the bottom for the wave (c) of wave (A) and the market will develop the wave (B) of the overall corrective move.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $9,064
    WR2 - $8,729
    WR1 - $8,221

    Weekly Pivot - $7,955
    WS1 - $7,433
    WS2 - $7,138
    WS3 - $6,572


    Trading recommendations:
    Due to the short-term impulsive scenario invalidation, the best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

    b-s-101019.jpg



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    Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 10 October 2019

    Crypto Industry News:
    Donating cryptocurrency donations to political parties received the approval of Japanese Interior Minister and Communications Minister Sanae Takaichi at a press conference.

    According to a local media report, Takaichi said political cryptocurrency donations do not have to be disclosed under the Political Funds Control Act, as opposed to cash and securities. Therefore, cryptographic donations can also be made without restrictions.

    "Cryptographic resources are not subject to any of the above [regulations] and do not limit donations" - said the minister.

    As cryptographic donations become more and more popular, Japanese political parties will have to deal with taxonomy and govern themselves, Takaichi continued. Because this will limit the political activity of politicians, the problem will be discussed by every party and group.

    The Japanese cryptocurrency industry is strictly regulated by the Financial Services Agency (FSA), which did not approve any opening of exchanges in 2018 and only 16 in 2017.


    Technical Market Overview:
    The ETH/USD pair has broken through the technical resistance located at the level of $185.05 and rallied up towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement that was violated as well. Currently, the bulls have managed to hit the 61% of the Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $195.88, but it might not be the end of the up move as the momentum is increasing. Any violation of the level of $195.88 will lead to another leg up towards the technical resistance seen at the level of $202.70 and $215.73. The confirmation of the bottom of the wave (C) at the level of $151.30 will take place when bulls will break through the wave (B) top at the level of $223.50.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $200.05
    WR2 - $192.33
    WR1 - $180.15

    Weekly Pivot - $172.02
    WS1 - $159.46
    WS2 - $151.65
    WS3 - $138.64


    Trading recommendations:
    The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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  8. #178
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    Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 11 October 2019

    Crypto Industry News:
    Bitwise Asset Management and NYSE Arca after the US regulatory authorities rejected the Bitcoin ETF fund, confirmed that they would resubmit it. According to the published press release, the companies said that while the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejected the ETF application, they are happy about the progress.

    The verdict on the ETF Bitwise proposal had many delays before the final decision that was made this week - the SEC had no choice under the laws and had to make it.

    "We greatly appreciate the careful review of the SEC. The detailed feedback they provided provides a critical context and a clear path for ETF applicants to continue working on listing Bitcoin ETFs. [...] We look forward to further productive cooperation with the SEC to address their remaining concerns and we are going to resubmit the application as soon as it is appropriate "- we read.

    Bitcoin markets, when news came about the last rejection of the application, remained stable. Earlier, Bitwise was particularly convinced that the application could be considered positive this time. "We're closer than ever to get Bitcoin ETF approval," Matt Hougan told major media on October 7.

    Nevertheless, more than a year's dialogue with regulators was not for nothing, says the company, concluding:

    "Although we have not been able to dispel SEC's concerns as part of the statutory 240-day review period that these reports provide, and although they have identified the need for additional data and context to interpret our key findings, we are pleased with the industry's progress and believe that thanks to additional research and further progress in the wider ecosystem, remaining concerns will be dispelled. "

    In September, another ETF proposal, this time from VanEck and SolidX, was withdrawn by sponsors. At the same time, the SEC delayed its ruling on Wilshire Phoenix's third bid.


    Technical Market Overview:
    The BTC/USD pair has hit 38% of the Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down located at the level of $8,671 and reversed immediately. Despite the fact, that the new local high was made at the level of $8,759, the momentum is clearly decreasing, so if this will be the impulsive wave upward, then the low located at the level of $7,676 will be confirmed as the bottom for the wave (c) of wave (A) and the market will develop the wave (B) of the overall corrective move. Currently, the bears are preparing to test the technical support at the level of $8,282 and if this level is violated then the next support is located at the level of $8,102.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $9,064
    WR2 - $8,729
    WR1 - $8,221

    Weekly Pivot - $7,955
    WS1 - $7,433
    WS2 - $7,138
    WS3 - $6,572


    Trading recommendations:
    Due to the short-term impulsive scenario invalidation, the best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

    b-s-111019.jpg



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  9. #179
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    Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 11 October 2019

    Crypto Industry News:
    The chairman of the US Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) believes that Ether is a commodity and trading ETH futures will become a reality.

    Heath Tarbert, the new president of CFTC, who took over the position of J. Christopher Giancarlo in July, presented his position on Ether, other cryptocurrencies and forked coins during the financial event Yahoo Finance Summit All Markets Summit.

    Although the CFTC made it very clear that Bitcoin is a commodity, it is reported that for the first time the authority presented the vision of Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization. In addition, as the publication notes, the chairman of the CFTC also expects to trade Ethereum futures contracts on US markets.

    "We spoke clearly about Bitcoin: Bitcoin is a commodity. We have not spoken anything about Ether - until now. [...] In my opinion, as president of CFTC, Ether is a commodity," he said.

    According to the publication, Tarbert acknowledges the existing uncertainty about the status of altcoins. He claimed, however, that similar digital assets should be treated in a similar way.

    Tarbert suggested that forked cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin Cash or Ethereum Classic - those that are derived from the original underlying Blockchain - should be treated the same as the original assets. At the same time, the chair noted that the status of a forked coin could change if "the fork itself raises some issues with securities law as part of this classic Howey test."

    "It is obvious that similar assets should be treated in a similar way. If the underlying asset, the original digital asset, was not specified as a security, and therefore is a commodity, most likely the forked resource will be the same," he said.


    Technical Market Overview:
    The ETH/USD pair has hit the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $195.88 and reversed immediately, hence the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern has been made. The bears are currently testing the local technical support located at the level of $185.05, but any violation of the level of $195.88 will lead to another leg up towards the technical resistance seen at the level of $202.70 and $215.73. The confirmation of the bottom of the wave (C) at the level of $151.30 will take place when bulls will break through the wave (B) top at the level of $223.50.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $200.05
    WR2 - $192.33
    WR1 - $180.15

    Weekly Pivot - $172.02
    WS1 - $159.46
    WS2 - $151.65
    WS3 - $138.64


    Trading recommendations:
    The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

    e-s-111019.jpg




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  10. #180
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    Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 14 October 2019

    Crypto Industry News:
    The Malaysian Ministry of Finance says that both domestic and global cryptocurrency adoption rates are low, despite the considerable attention the sector has received. However, in the recently published "Economic Outlook 2020" report, the ministry noted that several prominent companies from key sectors of the economy have taken steps to adopt digital currencies, according to financial media:

    "Although the impact of these projects was not even more noticeable, digital assets may appear as part of the wider economy or go as a novelty, depending on the result of their use," the report says.

    The ministry called on the global authorities to formulate a legal framework to solve problems related to digital assets, noting that close monitoring of the sector's development is necessary.

    The report summarizes the work done to date by the national financial supervisory authorities, including the amendment to Bank Negara Malaysia anti-money laundering and anti-terrorist financing provisions in February 2018 to take into account the requirements for digital asset service providers.

    In January 2019, the regulation on capital markets and services in Malaysia aimed at regulating both digital assets and exchange platforms entered into force. The order states that all digital assets offered as a form of investment or used as a fundraising method are classified as domestic securities.


    Technical market overview:
    After a failed attempt the rally above the level of 38% Fibonacci retracement at $8,671, the BTC/USD pair has reversed towards the technical support located at the level of $8,048. This level is around the middle of the horizontal trading range located between the level of $8,760 - $7,700, so the price in now back to the range again. The momentum is flat and so is the price action at the beginning of the new trading week as the global investors await a clear breakout in either direction. Please notice the larger timeframe trend remains bullish.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $9,781
    WR2 - $9,248
    WR1 - $8,711

    Weekly Pivot - $8,198
    WS1 - $7,675
    WS2 - $7,127
    WS3 - $6,590


    Trading recommendations:
    Due to the short-term impulsive scenario invalidation, the best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

    b-s-141019.jpg



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