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Thread: Cryptocurrency Analysis

  1. #51
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    Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 19 August 2019

    Crypto Industry News:
    The Australian Tax Office (ATO) has sent warning letters to investors who have placed most of their retirement savings in cryptocurrencies.

    As part of ATO's efforts to alert against high-risk investment strategies related to pensions, 18,000 Self-Managed Superfund holders, a type of retirement account managed privately by individuals, have been punished with up to 4,200 Australian dollars for violations, local media reports.

    While the letter was addressed to every SMSF holder who owned over 90 percent of his retirement savings in a single asset - mainly in real estate - ATO also identified cryptocurrencies as a high-risk investment.

    For clarity, the agency warns not about the asset class itself, but about excessive exposure to any asset. The Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) has expressed a similar view:

    "Watch out for services offering the establishment of an SMSF for exposure to cryptocurrencies. Running an SMSF requires not only considerable time, skill and responsibility, but can also pose a risk to retirement savings."


    Technical Market Overview:
    The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the level of $172.72 and broken through the technical resistance at the level of $190.94. The bulls have managed to move the prices higher towards the level of $196.76, which is a technical resistance for the price. So far the bulls did not have the strength to break through this level, but if they will, then the next target is seen at the level of $215.63. The immediate technical support is now located at the level of $190.94.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $257.46
    WR2 - $236.43
    WR1 - $213.67

    Weekly Pivot - $193.41
    WS1 - $171.74
    WS2 - $150.23
    WS3 - $128.88


    Trading Recommendations:
    The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.


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  2. #52
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    Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on August 19th. "The index of fear and greed" fell to the minimum values. Bitcoin deanonymization

    Bitcoin – 4H.
    b-k-200819.jpg

    Trading on cryptocurrency exchanges is carried out seven days a week, and at the moment, the quotes of the "cue ball" have closed above the correction level of 61.8% ($10,251). The fall of BTC ended this time around the Fibo level of 38.2% ($9,558) on the red Fibo grid. Thus, bitcoin has yet to avoid further fall and is held above $10,000 per coin. "Index of fear and greed" on August 19. This is not the lowest value, but it is still low. It reflects the mood of crypto traders, who are now more inclined to sell "cue ball", as they are more afraid of a further drop in the price of cryptocurrency than they expect to earn.

    At the same time, many investment funds began to pay a premium to miners in the amount of 20% for the so-called "purity" of bitcoin. The "purity" of bitcoin means the number of transactions for each specific coin. The newly received bitcoin has no transactions yet, which means that it did not participate in any illegal operations. This attitude of the major funds for "purity" due to fears that US authorities will achieve in the long term deanonymization of bitcoin. The Bitcoin network stores information about absolutely all transactions of each coin. Thus, if the government authorities can find a way to decrypt and such an initiative is approved by law, the main trump card of the "cue ball" will sink into oblivion. Large funds understand this and want to be safe right now, since "dirty" BTC can be confiscated, no matter how wild it sounds now, or they will have less demand and price.

    The second important trump card that Bitcoin has already lost is its innovativeness. At the time of take-off, up to $ 20,000, bitcoin was discussed by everyone, any citizen of any country wanted to buy it because the technology was new and promised huge profits in a relatively short time. Now, the excitement around the crypto segment is falling, which leads to a decrease in the number of transactions.

    The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


    Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
    Bitcoin closed above the Fibo level of 61.8% ($10,251). Thus, I recommend buying cryptocurrency with the target of $10642, with the stop-loss order below the level of 61.8%.

    I recommend selling bitcoin with the target of $9,782, and with the stop-loss order above the level of $10,251, if the consolidation is performed under the correction level of 61.8%.


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  3. #53
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    BTC. Double bottom formation confirmed
    20 August 2019

    Industry news:
    The average crypto market sentiment measure, Sentscore, for the top 10 coins dropped further this Monday to 4.37, below last week's 4.76 and even below 4.43 from three weeks ago, according to Omenics, a crypto market sentiment analysis service. However, the sentiment improved sharply in the past 24 hours.


    Daily view:
    b-p-200819.jpg
    Based on the daily time-frame, I found successful rejection of the key support at the price of $9,185 (my Friday's target), which is good indication for more upside. Stochastic oscillator got fresh bull cross and this is just another confirmation for the further upside and potential test of $11,270.

    4H time-frame view:
    b-p-200819b.jpg

    Based on the 4H time-frame, I found double bottom formation and strong reversal bar in the background, which is strong sign that upward momentum is present. MACD entered into positive territory.


    Trading recommendation:
    According to current market condition, my advice is to watch for buying opportunities on the pullbacks with the first target at $11,270.


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  4. #54
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    Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 20 August 2019

    Crypto Industry News:
    The leading cryptocurrency exchange Binance launches an open Blockchain project called "Venus" focused on the development of local stablecoins around the world.

    In an announcement published on August 19, the stock exchange claims it is well prepared to launch such a monetary ecosystem in the light of its existing technology, Binance Chain, a wide user base and already established global compliance measures.

    Stock market managers say they are seeking partnerships with governments, corporations, technology companies and other crypto and Blockchain projects to develop a new monetary ecosystem that will strengthen both developed and developing countries. According to the announcement, the goal of the project is to build a new open alliance and a sustainable community that will acquire partners who have an impact on a global scale.

    Binance Chain has already launched several native asset-related stablecoins, including Bitcoin-related BTCB and BGBP-related Stablecoin. Binance says it will use its existing infrastructure and experience in various regulatory systems to standardize the compliance check system and build a multi-dimensional collaboration network for the Venus project.

    The ambitious new Binance venture seems to compete directly with the plans of Facebook's social media giant, planning to launch a stablecoin linked to fiduciary currencies called Libra, which would power the global cryptographic payment network embedded in three wholly-owned applications: WhatsApp, Messenger, and Instagram.


    Technical Market Overview:
    The BTC/USD pair has retraced 50% of the last wave down. The price tested the level of $10,840 and currently is still trading with high momentum. The bulls must move the prices higher towards the level of $11,027 in order to control the market. Any violation of this level will be a good signal of a possible further move higher towards the level of 61% retracement at $11,177 and then to technical resistance located at $11,855. The larger timeframe trend remains up.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $13,461
    WR2 - $12,432
    WR1 - $11,161

    Weekly Pivot - $10,133
    WS1 - $9,200
    WS2 - $8,268
    WS3 - $7,027


    Trading Recommendations:
    The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,049 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.

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  5. #55
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    Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 20 August 2019

    Crypto Industry News:
    The Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Rakuten Wallet began trading a year after acquiring Everybody's Bitcoin.

    Rakuten Wallet, which is a subsidiary of the Japanese e-commerce giant Rakuten, said that spot trading with three cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin, Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash - has already entered into force. In the future, developers plan to release an application for iOS and Android, the use of which will be mandatory for deposits and withdrawals.

    "Customers who already have a bank account with Rakuten Bank will be able to easily open an account with Rakuten Wallet simply by entering the required information in the online application form"- we read in a press release.

    Rakuten acquired Everybody's Bitcoin in August 2018 for $ 2.4 million. The management originally announced the upcoming premiere in April this year, but progress seemed to stall. The stock market joins the rapidly growing ecosystem in the Japanese market, and many competitors are fighting for a piece of domestic cryptocurrency trading.

    Last month, Tokyo announced it wanted to create a cryptocurrency-based counterpart to SWIFT, the global payment settlement network, as part of a G7-approved move.


    Technical Market Overview:
    The bulls on the ETH/USD market have managed to move the prices higher towards the level of $197.70, which is a 38% retracement of the previous swing down. So far the bulls did not have the strength to break through this level, but if they will, then the next target is seen at the level of $215.63. There are two more retracements to hit as well and they are located at the level of $205.68 and $213.45. The immediate technical support is now located at the level of $190.94.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $257.46
    WR2 - $236.43
    WR1 - $213.67

    Weekly Pivot - $193.41
    WS1 - $171.74
    WS2 - $150.23
    WS3 - $128.88


    Trading Recommendations:
    The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

    e-s-200819.jpg


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    Performed by Sebastian Seliga
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    InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

  6. #56
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    Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on August 21st. The difference between bitcoin and any other investment tool

    Bitcoin – 4H.
    b-k-210819.jpg

    Over the past day, Bitcoin has fallen in price by almost $700, which is absolutely normal. This drawdown does not even cause panic in the cryptocurrency market. Now, imagine what would happen if the US dollar fell to the euro by 2 cents per day? This happens 2-3 times a year, and even then not every year. Bitcoin can lose or buy 5-10% of the cost per day and no one is surprised. Crypto experts continue to blow at all corners that bitcoin will rise in price in any case, it's only a matter of time. Now, another question: have you seen at least one forecast that would predict bitcoin falling to $2,000 - $3,000? The answer, I think, is obvious. You can take any pair, any instrument, and there will always be so-called bulls and bears, traders who believe that the instrument or currency will rise in price or, conversely, cheaper, and depending on their strategy. In the case of bitcoin, the question is different: either to buy or not to trade. It is from such obvious differences between bitcoin and any other investment instruments or currency that I continue to argue that the demand for the "cue ball" and its value by 80% depends on the influx of new investors who want to earn faster. It is for this that crypto experts, millionaires, billionaires regularly recommend buying bitcoin, predict its growth to fabulous figures. In order for more one-day investors to come to the market, the demand for BTC has increased, the cryptocurrency has risen in price. And at high levels, it can be sold by collapsing the market from $20,000 to $3,000, as it was already.

    Based on this, I do not claim that bitcoin does not need to be bought or that it will not grow, for example, to $50000. I only claim that bitcoin is a short-term investment tool, but not a long-term one. It does not perform the function of preserving the value, does not have its own value, its price depends entirely on market participants, the number of which allows major players to change the market conditions and mood.

    At the moment, the "cue ball" has completed the closure under the correction level of 61.8% ($10251), so I expect the cryptocurrency to continue falling in the direction of the next Fibo level of 76.4% ($9782). Divergence is not evident today.

    The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


    Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
    Bitcoin completed the closure under the Fibo level of 61.8% ($10251). Thus, I recommend selling the cryptocurrency with the target of $9782, with the stop-loss order above the level of 61.8%.

    I recommend buying bitcoin with the target of $10642, and with the stop-loss level at $10251, if the consolidation above the correction level of 61.8% is performed.


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  7. #57
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    BTC. Potential long term bear cycle in the play
    21 August 2019

    Industry news:
    The narrative about the Chinese buying up Bitcoin is flowing two ways – some reports say that the Chinese are turning to the cryptocurrency because of the FUD created by the US-China trade war, while others indicate that the Chinese are not buying up crypto. An article by Nikkei Asian Review highlights that China's central bank may be pushing the demand for Bitcoin after all. "


    Technical view:
    b-p-210819.jpg

    Nothing changed since my yesterday's forecast.From the weekly time-frame prospective, BTC is trading inside of the trading range between the price of $12,275(high) and $9,000 (low).The high from June at $14,000 is holding well for 9 weeks and it is a warning for the further upside. I see potential for more downside.

    Yellow rectangle – Major resistance ($14,00)

    Purple horizontal line – Support 1 ($9,095)

    Green rectangle – Support 2 ($6,755)

    Blue lines – Pitchfork channels

    Weekly pivot points:
    S3 S2 S1 P R1 R2 R3

    6214.61 8302.99 9210.35 10391.37 11298.73 12479.75 14568.13

    There is a successful test and reject of the Pitchfork upward channel and stagnation for 9weeks, which is for me sign of the potential more downside. My advice is to watch for shorting opportunity here with targets at $9,095 and $6,755 as long as the BTC is trading below the $14,000.



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  8. #58
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    Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 22 August 2019

    Crypto Industry News:
    The Central Bank of India received an order from the Supreme Court of the country in relation to his proceeding regarding a ban on conducting activities related to cryptocurrencies and ordered him to consider complaints.

    During a recent session of the ongoing hearing on the activities of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on August 21, the court ruled that officials did not adequately respond to cryptocurrency industry concerns about its activities.

    RBI banned banks from supporting cryptographic operators, such as stock exchanges, in July 2018 - effectively stopping such platforms from continuing to operate in India. Today there has been harsh criticism from Supreme Court judge Rohinton Wave Nariman. As Crypto Kanoon, who was present at the trial, summed up on Twitter, Nariman gave RBI just two weeks to justify his actions.

    Discussing the final result of the interrogation that has already ended, Crypto Kanoon concluded:

    "The case took the most unpredictable turn. Judge Nariman orders the RBI to respond to representation in an appropriate manner. I offer to postpone the case for 2 weeks, as I heard, let the answer come after the RBI has reconsidered the ban. RBI agreed "- we read.

    The case arises at the same time as the Indian government is considering making cryptocurrencies illegal for all citizens. In July, a government committee recommended the Delhi movement to ban all tokens except the official digital version of the rupee. Then the expert estimated that the country, if it signed the ban, would lose a market worth about 13 billion dollars.


    Technical Market Overview:
    The BTC/USD pair has moved towards the lower channel boundary located at the level of $8,700. So far the bulls are defending this level, but any breakout lower will be a clear signal that the downside momentum is accelerating. The nearest technical support is seen at the levels of $9,912 and $9,676. Still, the larger timeframe trend remains up, but to regain control over the market, the bulls have to break through the 50% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $10,840.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $13,461
    WR2 - $12,432
    WR1 - $11,161

    Weekly Pivot - $10,133
    WS1 - $9,200
    WS2 - $8,268
    WS3 - $7,027


    Trading Recommendations:
    The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,049 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.

    b-s-220819.jpg



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  9. #59
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    Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 22 August 2019

    Crypto Industry News:
    Stablecoin operator Tether plans to release stablecoin supported by a Chinese yuan, according to local industry media.

    Bitfinex shareholder Zhao Dong informed the market that Tether - the operator behind the leading USDT stablecoin - plans to release a new stablecoin in the near future. He would be supported by a Chinese yuan kept on foreign accounts under the name CNHT.

    Zhao also reportedly said his digital asset management platform, RenrenBit, would be the first to invest in the project. He also pointed out that Tether and Bitfinex cryptocurrency exchange are interrelated and that they have the same management team.

    The relationship between Bitfinex and Tether sparked suspicion after an attorney general's office in New York filed a complaint against iFinex, Bitfinex and Tether in April. Prosecutors said companies deceived New York investors by concealing a $ 850 million loss on the Bitfinex trading platform.

    Bitfinex and Tether responded to the recent ruling of Judge Joel Cohen in a case pending against companies, maintaining that the allegations are unfounded.


    Technical Market Overview:
    The bears at the ETH/USD market have pushed the prices lower towards the level of technical support at $183.00 as the price has fallen out of the channel and is trading around the level of $183.00. The next technical support is located at the level of $176.99 and might be tested soon as there are no signs of increased bullish activity. The nearest technical resistance is now located at the level of $190.94.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $257.46
    WR2 - $236.43
    WR1 - $213.67

    Weekly Pivot - $193.41
    WS1 - $171.74
    WS2 - $150.23
    WS3 - $128.88


    Trading Recommendations:
    The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

    e-s-220819.jpg


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    Performed by Sebastian Seliga
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  10. #60
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    Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on August 22nd. Thanks to the "halving", Bitcoin can rise in price up to $50,000 in 2020

    Bitcoin – 4H.
    b-k-220819.jpg

    As I already said, the value of Bitcoin in most cases is determined by the number of one-day investors in the crypto market. If there is a wave of bitcoin purchases, the influx of new investors who want to get a "quick profit" supports demand and value growth. There are no other cue ball growth factors now. Even the aggravation of the trade conflict between China and America is not a sufficient reason for a sharp rise of BTC, although many investors are trying to go into safe assets. However, bitcoin is quite difficult to attribute to them, and in most cases, investors still prefer gold, franc or yen. At the moment, bitcoin is getting cheaper again, but the bears failed to close under the Fibo level of 76.4% ($9782).

    An important issue that is now on the agenda is the so-called "halving", which will be the system in 2020. "Halving" is a reduction in the remuneration of miners for the mined block. It is logical to assume that the cost of the number one cryptocurrency will grow, however, from my point of view, not 2-5 times. The rise in price will be possible, but not as strong as many world experts in the cryptocurrency segment predict. Called numbers from $50,000 to $60,000.

    The information background as such is currently missing. There are reports from China about the death of a large mining farm due to flooding. There are discussions of crypto traders regarding the possible ban of cryptocurrencies by the US authorities, of course, not in the short term. But all this has little effect on the movement of bitcoin.

    The retreat of the "cue" quotes from the correction level of 76.4% will allow us to count on some growth in the direction of the Fibo levels of 61.8% ($10251) and 50.0% ($10642). Closing the BTC rate under the level of 76.4% will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 100.0% ($9022).

    The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


    Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
    Bitcoin fell to the Fibo level of 76.4% ($9782). Thus, I recommend selling the cryptocurrency with the target of $9022, with the stop-loss order above the level of 38.2%, if there is a close below the level of $9558.

    I recommend buying bitcoin with a target of $10251, and with a stop-loss level of $9782, if a rebound from the correction level of 76.4% is performed.



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    Performed by Samir Klishi
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