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Thread: Cryptocurrency Analysis

  1. #581
    Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 19 May 2020

    Crypto Industry News:
    By reducing the block reward by half, the only good information for Bitcoin miners is transaction fees. At the moment, they allow to minimize their losses due to recent halving, as a result of which the revenues of miners fell by over 60%.

    On May 10, miners earned 2,188 BTC, on May 12 this figure dropped to 852 BTC, or 61%. Halving forced some miners to leave the chain, which led to a reduction in the network's hashrate rate. This, in turn, led to an increase in the block interval, which means that fewer of them were processed per unit time, thus reducing the number of block rewards available to miners.

    What has happened so far can be called the "mini spiral of death" scenario. The only good news for miners is that network congestion has led to a sharp increase in transaction fees, i.e. from $ 0.62 at the end of April to $ 5.21 on May 15. Currently, as a result of this dynamic situation, transaction fees amount to 17% of miners' revenues. This is the highest percentage since January 2018.

    Miners' revenues denominated in USD fell from $ 19.25 million on May 9, to $ 7.82 million on May 12. This is a decrease of 62%. The next correction in mining difficulty will occur in three days. However, current calculations predict growth because hashrate went up significantly before halving. However, before this happens, we will probably see a slight decrease in difficulty, which should help other miners.

    It is possible that as Bitcoin matures and each subsequent halving, there will eventually be no more new Bitcoins, so miners will have to rely more on transaction fees. However, the higher they are, the less attractive the network will be for users.

    It should be remembered, however, that many mining industry experts believe that the hashrate decline is upward for Bitcoins, as it will increase the profitability of other miners.


    Technical Market Outlook:
    The BTC/USD pair has been hovering around the level of $10,000, which is the key short-term technical resistance for the bulls. The recent local high was made at the level of $9,888, so any violation of this level will lead to the local up trend extension towards the level of $10,227 - $10,430. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $9,382. Please notice, the market conditions on daily time frame chart are extremely overbought.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $12,194
    WR2 - $10,994
    WR1 - $10,553

    Weekly Pivot - $9,337
    WS1 - $8,765
    WS2 - $7,555
    WS3 - 7,013


    Trading Recommendations:
    The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated.

    b-s-190520.jpg




    s_seliga.png
    Performed by Sebastian Seliga
    Analytical expert
    InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

  2. #582
    Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 20 May 2020

    Crypto Industry News:
    Robert Kiyosaki, businessman and author of the book Rich Dad, Poor Dad, again visited Twitter to announce his bullish position to Bitcoin. In a published tweet, Kiyosaki states that fear of a dying economy led him to buy more three assets, which he considers valuable outside of the traditional financial system: gold, silver and Bitcoin. The author's tweet describes how valuable he thinks every resource will be in the coming years.

    "I bought more silver and Bitcoin gold. GOLD [currently] at $ 1,700. I forecast $ 3,000 in 1 year. Silver [currently] at $ 17. I predict $ 40 for 5 years. Bitcoin [currently] at $ 9,800. I anticipate $ 75,000 in three years."

    In numerical terms, this forecast reflects the expected annual increase of around 76%, 19% and 97% for gold, silver and Bitcoin, respectively. This indicates, at least according to Kiyosaki's calculations, that Bitcoin has the most favorable profit potential out of three.

    This is not the first time Robert Kiyosaki has used his platform to explain the benefits of Bitcoin and Blockchain. In recent months, the businessman has repeatedly talked about his faith in the future of these technologies.


    Technical Market Outlook:
    The BTC/USD pair has been seen hovering around the level of $10,000, which is the key short-term technical resistance for the bulls. The recent local high was made at the level of $9,884, so any violation of this level will lead to the local up trend extension towards the level of $10,227 - $10,430. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $9,381. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $9,382. Please notice, the market conditions on daily time frame chart are extremely overbought.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $12,194
    WR2 - $10,994
    WR1 - $10,553

    Weekly Pivot - $9,337
    WS1 - $8,765
    WS2 - $7,555
    WS3 - 7,013


    Trading Recommendations:
    The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated.

    b-s-200520.jpg



    s_seliga.png
    Performed by Sebastian Seliga
    Analytical expert
    InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

  3. #583
    Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 20 May 2020

    Crypto Industry News:
    This week, hackers have attacked numerous supercomputers across Europe with the intention of mining cryptocurrencies. Supercomputers had to be turned off to investigate intrusions. Security incidents were reported in the United Kingdom, Germany and Switzerland. In addition, according to the report, another possible attack took place in an advanced computer center in Spain.

    Most attacks appear to be targeted at universities. The University of Edinburgh, where the ARCHER supercomputer operates, reported the first incident on Monday. Then, the high-performance computing clusters of major universities in Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany also announced that they were attacked on Monday with similar security incidents and had to be closed. More attacks have taken place in institutions in other parts of Germany, Spain and Switzerland. Clusters at the Leibniz Computing Center or LRZ, an institute at the Bavarian Academy of Sciences, the Julich Research Center in the city of Julich in Germany, the Faculty of Physics of the Ludwig-Maximilians University in Munich, and the Swiss Scientific Computing Center (CSCS) in Zurich in Switzerland were classified as victims.

    News shows that malware samples issued by the computer security incident response team have been reviewed by a US cybersecurity company. The Computer Security Incident Response Team (CSIRT) is a pan-European organization coordinating research on supercomputers across Europe.

    The company said the attackers probably stole the credentials of members of SSH universities in Canada, China and Poland in order to gain access to supercomputer clusters. Secure Shell (SSH) is a cryptographic network protocol for securely managing network services in an unsecured network.


    Technical Market Outlook:
    The ETH/USD pair has made a new local high during the rally at the level of $216 and is currently consolidating the gains around the level of $210 in a narrow range. The momentum behind the move up is strong, but the market conditions are extremely overbought on the daily time frame chart, so the rally might be short-lived. Nevertheless, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $217.65 and $225.84. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $204.50. Please notice, the ETH/USD pair might be developing the Triangle price pattern, which is a trend continuation pattern.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $259.01
    WR2 - $231.70
    WR1 - $222.59

    Weekly Pivot - $197.56
    WS1 - $188.48
    WS2 - $163.94
    WS3 - $154.56


    Trading Recommendations:
    The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

    e-s-200520.jpg




    s_seliga.png
    Performed by Sebastian Seliga
    Analytical expert
    InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

  4. #584
    BTC analysis for May 20, 2020 - Watch for the breakout fo the upward channel and symmetrical triangle to confirm downside rotation towards the level at $8.150

    News:
    b-p-200520.jpg

    As such, the difficulty of mining is set to self-adjust every 2016 blocks -basically every two weeks- in order to maintain a steady block interval. For instance, if it took more than two weeks to mine the previous 2016 blocks, the difficulty decreases. If it took less, mining difficulty is increased.

    On May 20, the difficulty decreased by 6% to 15.14T. According to Glassnode, this decrease was expected and is consistent with the recent drop in hashrate after the halving.


    Trading recommendation:
    Watch for selling opportunities if you see the breakout of the symmetrical triangle and upward channel. The downward targets are set at the price of $9,085 and $8,150. Main resistance is set at the price of $10,000



    s_jacimovic.png
    Performed by Petar Jacimovic
    Analytical expert
    InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

  5. #585
    Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 21 May 2020

    Crypto Industry News:
    The team responsible for the tBTC project, an attempt to transfer Bitcoin to Ethereum via decentralized depositories, closed the bridge just two days after launch.

    The decision was revealed today by Matt Luongo, founder of Thesis, a company that supports tBTC as part of the Keep project. TBTC was launched on May 16 in the Ethereum network, operating just two days before performing a temporary shutdown operation.

    Although the team did not specify the reason for disabling the protocol, it seems likely that this was due to a smart contract error discovered by Antonio Salazar Cardozo, head of labor engineering. Luongo explained that the contract has been checked many times, but it seems that this was not enough.

    Luongo emphasized that tBTC will "rise again", probably after the team re-implements the agreed smart contracts.


    Technical Market Outlook:
    The ETH/USD pair has broken out of the Triangle pattern and the breakout direction was down. Moreover, the bears has manage to break through the short-term trend line support as well ( marked in navy on chart). The local low was made at the level of $205.05 which is a technical support for the price. Any violation of this level will lead to the correction extension towards the level of $198.72. Please notice, that the momentum is decreasing as market is coming off from the overbought conditions.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $259.01
    WR2 - $231.70
    WR1 - $222.59

    Weekly Pivot - $197.56
    WS1 - $188.48
    WS2 - $163.94
    WS3 - $154.56


    Trading Recommendations:
    The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

    e-s-210520.jpg



    s_seliga.png
    Performed by Sebastian Seliga
    Analytical expert
    InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

  6. #586
    Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 21 May 2020

    Crypto Industry News:
    From April 11 to May 14, Bitcoin transaction fees increased by more than 1,250% from $ 0.38 to $ 5.16.

    Although transaction fees have since fallen by 33.3% to around $ 3.44, they have risen again by 36.5% since the May 11 halving.

    The average cost of transactions in the Bitcoin network increased by over 800% in just one month, with the highest transaction fees from July 2019 recorded in May.

    Halving fees increased by more than a third, which resulted in a 105% increase in transaction costs in three days. Although fees reach their highest levels in almost a year, current transaction costs account for less than one-tenth of the record levels recorded at the end of 2017.

    Before Bitcoin's second halving on July 9, 2016, fees increased by approximately 200% from $ 0.081 on May 1, 2016, to a peak of about $ 0.24 published both in mid-June and late July of that year.

    Bitcoin's first halving on November 28, 2012 increased fees by 300% from November 26 to November 27, followed by a return to pre-halving levels within two days of reducing block prizes.


    Technical Market Outlook:
    The BTC/USD pair has been seen hovering around the level of $10,000 which is the key short-term technical resistance for the bulls for almost all week, but after the recent local high was made at the level of $9,884, the bears started to make more pressure on the market. In the result, two Bearish Engulfing candlestick patterns were made side by side and the price reacted accordingly. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $9,382 and $9,249. Please notice, the market conditions on daily time frame chart are extremely overbought.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $12,194
    WR2 - $10,994
    WR1 - $10,553

    Weekly Pivot - $9,337
    WS1 - $8,765
    WS2 - $7,555
    WS3 - 7,013


    Trading Recommendations:
    The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated.

    b-s-210520.jpg



    s_seliga.png
    Performed by Sebastian Seliga
    Analytical expert
    InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

  7. #587
    BTC analysis for May 21,.2020 - The drop on BTC started and conifmed our downside view. Downward target is set at the price of $8.150

    News:
    b-p-210520.jpg

    A rally in April 2020 lifted crypto hedge fund YTD profits to 13.4 percent, while a wider hedge fund industry suffered losses.

    Meanwhile, the Embark Group's Peter Toogood warned that many fund managers are not bullish on the U.S. stocks.

    Some of the world's leading hedge funds are losing the profit-making race to smaller rivals with high exposure in the Bitcoin market.

    Hedge fund research group HFR found that bitcoin-focused investment partnerships earned 13.4 percent yields this year, which came to be better than the average 6.7 percent YTD loss across the non-crypto hedge fund industry. The crypto industry flourished despite losing 26.62 of its capitalization on average in March 2020.

    Pantera Capital, for instance, bore a 33.6 percent loss via its Digital Assets Fund in March. But its recovery in April took its YTD profits to 32.5 percent.


    Technical analysis:
    BTC has been trading downwards. As I expected, the BTC broke the upward channel and test the level of $9,200. I still see BTC downside and the next downward target is set at the price of $8,150.




    s_jacimovic.png
    Performed by Petar Jacimovic
    Analytical expert
    InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

  8. #588
    Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 22 May 2020

    Crypto Industry News:
    The university, which trains officials of the Communist Party of China, has published a new book about cryptocurrencies.

    According to a local publication, the Central Party School of the Communist Party of China - also known as the Central Party School - published a book as part of a series of books on breakthrough technologies. Previous entries in this series were "Dialogue with party leaders about AI" and "Dialogue with party leaders about Blockchain".

    The goal of the book series is to provide party officials and the public with a source of information on emerging new technology trends. Chinese Central Bank directors, commercial banking directors and regulators were invited to write a prologue to a new published book on cryptography.

    The book begins with the history and origin of fiat currency, and then gives an overview of the current credit currency system and its disadvantages. This leads to a section on cryptographic movement and the birth of Bitcoin.

    The book further explores the nature and future of the digital currency and explains in detail what cryptographic exchanges and ICOs are. Discusses and analyzes regulatory problems regarding these new solutions.

    The entire chapter of the book was distributed to the Digital Currencies of the Central Bank (CBDC). Explains the strategy behind digital Yuan and the impact it would have on the current payment system. A full comparative analysis of CBDC, Libra and stablecoins was included.

    It warns against the dangers of super sovereign cryptocurrencies, such as Libra, questioning the monetary sovereignty of countries with imperfect financial market infrastructure. Proposes regulatory measures to address these trends.


    Technical Market Outlook:
    The ETH/USD pair has extended the losses after the breakout from the Triangle pattern. Moreover, the bears has manage to break through the short-term trend line support as well ( marked in navy on chart) and below another trend line support as well (marked in brown on the chart). The local low was made at the level of $190 which is a technical support for the price. Any violation of this level will lead to the correction extension towards the level of $188.86 and $186.72. Please notice, that the momentum is decreasing as market is coming off from the overbought conditions.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $259.01
    WR2 - $231.70
    WR1 - $222.59

    Weekly Pivot - $197.56
    WS1 - $188.48
    WS2 - $163.94
    WS3 - $154.56


    Trading Recommendations:
    The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

    e-s-220520.jpg



    s_seliga.png
    Performed by Sebastian Seliga
    Analytical expert
    InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

  9. #589
    Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 22 May 2020

    Crypto Industry News:
    The Bitcoin address, which collected 50 BTC from mining, has just shown the first sign of activity since February 2009 - just a month after the creation of Bitcoin.

    According to data, the address 17XiVVooLcdCUCMf9s4t4jTExacxwFS5uh transferred the entire award for mining 50 BTC to two different wallets. Of this, 40 BTC remains inactive. The remaining 10 BTC were sent to the multiple address, as evidenced by its starting number.

    Since then, the transaction chain has become more difficult to track because Bitcoins have been split into almost tens of parts within a complex chain.

    The original wallet contained a transaction generating 50 Bitcoins, which were mined on February 9, 2009. In the community it is known that Satoshi's "fortune" is spread over many different wallets.

    Only three people knew about Bitcoin at the time: Satoshi, the dead Hal Finney and Martti Malmi.

    Theories about the potential owner of these funds include the wife of Finney and Malmi, but Satoshi is also a likely candidate. The complex transaction chain suggests that the signatory is trying to hide the destination of the funds.


    Technical Market Outlook:
    The BTC/USD pair has been pushed lower after almost a week of hovering around the level of $10,000, but not breaking it. The bears has pushed the price towards the level of $8,759, which is just a tad above the trend line support. If this trend line is violated, then the losses might extend towards the level of $8,464 or below. Please notice, the momentum is weak and negative which supports the short term bearish outlook.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $12,194
    WR2 - $10,994
    WR1 - $10,553

    Weekly Pivot - $9,337
    WS1 - $8,765
    WS2 - $7,555
    WS3 - 7,013


    Trading Recommendations:
    The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated.

    b-s-220520.jpg



    s_seliga.png
    Performed by Sebastian Seliga
    Analytical expert
    InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

  10. InstaForex
  11. #590
    Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 25 May 2020

    Crypto Industry News:
    Just before halving, Bitcoin's Hash Rate has almost reached its new ATH. Unfortunately, shortly after halving (as expected by many analysts) we saw drastic drops. Citing data provided by blockchain.com, the 7-day average HR value of the BTC network increased for the first time since May 11. Admittedly, a small reflection of only 1% may suggest slow stabilization of this very important indicator.

    May 22 Hash Rate fluctuated at 94.6 million H / s, the previous day the value was 93.6 H / s, which is an increase of 1.11%. Just before halving, the new ATH was at hand, but unfortunately everything indicates that we will have to wait for the new record.

    Drastic drops in the power of the BTC network have caused concern among many analysts. Many claimed that Hash Rate fell into a "spiral of death" and fell to the bottom. A ray of hope gives the last positive reading.

    After halving, as expected, many miners capitulated. Reducing the mining prize by half has pushed many out of the market.

    The decrease in Hash Rate also had an impact on the amount of adjustment of the difficulty of digging BTC. This, in turn, fell from 16.1 T to 15.1 T. From a miner's point of view, this is a good signal, as it may encourage some of them to return.


    Technical Market Outlook:
    The BTC/USD pair has broken through the key trend line support located around the level of $8,800 and made a new local low at the level of $8,567. The next technical support is seen at the level of $8,464 and $8,357. On the other hand, the nearest resistance is located at the level of $8,919 and $9,013. The momentum remains weak and negative, so the odds for another wave down are high.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $10,568
    WR2 - $10,245
    WR1 - $9,478

    Weekly Pivot - $9,098
    WS1 - $8,333
    WS2 - $7,968
    WS3 - 7,231


    Trading Recommendations:
    The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

    b-s-250520.jpg



    s_seliga.png
    Performed by Sebastian Seliga
    Analytical expert
    InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

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