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Thread: Cryptocurrency Analysis

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    XRP sets another record. Crypto market takes pause

    Yesterday, the crypto market was in an upward trend owing to XRP's rally. Ripple rose to $1.11, the level unseen in three years. After that, the crypto asset's rally faded and the market took a short pause.

    After reaching a $2 trillion record in total capitalization, the crypto market shrunk by 2.5% over the last 24 hours. On April 7, the major cryptocurrencies slowed down their pace and took a wait-and-see stance. For the last 24 hours, Ripple lost 10%. At the same time, the daily trading volume in XRP/USD remains at $43 billion. On top of that, the coin advanced by 2.7% for the last few hours according to the charts.

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    The cryptocurrency's rally followed the Court's approval of Ripple's claim to request internal documents from the SEC. The market welcomed this news and took it as yet another Ripple's victory against the regulator. As a result, XRP/USD broke the $1 barrier and boosted the entire crypto market. Later, the situation stabilized and the colin dropped to $0.918. According to the price dynamics for the last couple of hours, the upward trend will resume soon.

    Meanwhile, BTC/USD is still trading in the $57-59K price range. Yesterday, the world's top digital asset lost 2.3% and plunged by 2.2% for the previous week.

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    In the long-term, the top digital coin is expected to remain within the $57-59K price range. At the same time, the cryptocurrency lacks support to start rising and break through the $60K mark. Its daily trading volume amounts to $66.5 billion, which is 7% higher than yesterday. However, it is all about an increased demand for bitcoin among retail investors as well as its lack among large companies, which can boost the virtual asset. In the short term, the world's first cryptocurrency is unlikely to go above the $60K mark.

    For the last 24 hours, Ethereum lost 4% and consolidated at $2,039. The upward trend will extend to $2,100 if ETH/USD remains above $2K. Otherwise, the asset will plunge to $1,800. Given the current positive price dynamics (+0.4% over the past few hours) as well as a slightly increased daily trading volume ($36 billion), the main altcoin may consolidate and then extend its rally.

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    Meanwhile, LTC/USD also lost 2%. The asset is still at the important level of $220. It will become the key level for the next upward trend. Given the current positive price dynamics (+0.5%) and the high daily trading volume, the altcoin is expected to rise to $225-230 today.

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    Artem Petrenko
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    Bitcoin forecast for April 7, 2021

    1. How to make money on cryptocurrencies?

    In order to earn on cryptocurrencies, you should trade using a proven strategy. You can test the trading strategy by using historical data and a demo account. Only then, you can switch to live trading. There is no need to rush here. You should better start with smaller trade volumes because of the following reasons:

    Trading on a live account, a trader may feel anxious. It is hard to make any decision under pressure. You should get used to trading on a live account first. Therefore, traders should start with smaller trades, gradually increasing the lot size.

    A trader should stay calm while trading. This is the only way to achieve results. If, after raising the lot, a trader gets nervous, then the lot is too big and should be reduced. Such a gradual approach to trading will allow you to reach stable trading results and avoid heavy losses.


    2. Volume analysis of BTC from Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)

    Amid a fall in the value of bitcoin, the market is about to enter a correction. The price has been in the sideways corridor for a few days. Today, it started to drop. The price may break this corridor and the downward trend will extend. Let us consider the levels of the highest traded volume from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

    April 5, 2021 – the level of the highest traded volume (POC – PointOfControl) – 59,700

    April 6.2021 – the level of the highest traded volume (POC – PointOfControl) – 58,165

    The POC has moved down. The price is below yesterday's level of the highest traded volume. The price is trying to break the lows of the previous days. According to volume analysis, you can sell bitcoin today.


    3. Trend analysis

    Trade with the trend is one of the most reliable trading method that was used long before the digital era. In this forecast, the trend is analyzed with the help of an exponential moving average:

    Long-term trend – a blue EMA 1152 on the H1 chart, which is an alternative to EMA 48 on the D1 chart;

    Mid-term trend – a red EMA 288 on the H1 chart, which is an alternative to EMA 48 on the H4 chart;

    Short-term trend – a black EMA 48 on the H1 chart.

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    The price is below the short-term and the mid-term EMA. All EMAs are headed in different directions. Based on trend analysis, you can enter both long and positions today.


    4. Japanese candlestick analysis

    Japanese candlestick analysis is the third step in this trading system. Let us analyze yesterday's daily candlestick:

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    Yesterday's black daily candlestick has closed down. Its highs are above the highs of the previous candlestick.The candlestick pattern has long upper and lower shadows. Today, you can enter short positions today.


    5. Conclusion. Statistics

    Volume analysis – SELL
    Long-term trend – BUY
    Medium-term trend – BUY
    Short-term trend – SELL
    Japanese candlestick analysis – SELL

    Conclusion: You can buy and sell bitcoin in a short term on April 7, since different types of analysis provide different forecasts and the market is flat.

    Only statistics can reveal how efficient a trading strategy is. In this forecast, trades are carried out in a separate account. Trades are conducted in four instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and BCH/USD.


    Statement:
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    The market is flat. Therefore, I do not open new trades today.

    The risk per deal is no more than 1%. A Stop Loss is placed beyond the high/low of the day, depending on the direction of the trade. A Take Profit is not set. A Stop Loss is moved beyond the extreme points of the upcoming sessions.

    Since trading is carried out on daily charts, this recommendation is relevant throughout the day.

    Trade with the trend and you will generate profits!



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    Maxim Petrov
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    Forecast for Ethereum for April 7, 2021

    1. Volume analysis of ETH/TUSD from Binance

    The analysis is based on the traded volume data from the Binance exchange on the daily chart. The analysis is carried out based on the footprint-profile theory. According to the theory, the movement of the level of the highest traded volume intraday can indicate the likely direction of the trend. The highest trade volume is the level with the largest number of transactions carried out. That is, it is the level of major market players. Accordingly, if the highest traded volume goes up, it indicates an upward trend. Otherwise, if the level goes down, it indicates a downward trend. Chaotic movements signal that the market is trading flat.

    April 5, 2021 – the level of the highest traded volume (POC – PointOfControl) – 2,098.92

    April 6, 2021 – the level of the highest traded volume (POC – PointOfControl) – 2,119.8

    The POC has moved up. The price is below the POC. The market is moving in a sideways trend. You can enter long and short positions.


    2. Long-term trend analysis

    A trend is your friend. Many traders know this saying but do not know how to use it. The answer is simple: to trade only with the trend. Thus, your trades will be more profitable and less risky. According to the classic Dow theory, there are three main trends:

    long-term
    medium-term
    short-term

    These trends should be analyzed before you enter the market. This is what we are going to do right now.

    The long-term trend is the daily trend. In this case, trades are conducted in the daily time frame and are held for several days. The analysis of the daily trend is made with the help of the 48-period exponential moving average. If the daily candlestick closes above EMA 48, it will indicate the upward trend. You should enter long positions. Otherwise, if the daily candlestick closes below EMA 48, then it is the downward trend and you should enter short positions.

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    The price is above EMA 48. It is an upward long-term trend. You should consider entering long positions.


    3. Mid-term trend analysis

    The mid-term trend is the trend on the 4-hour chart (H4). In this case, we will also turn to EMA 48. If the candlestick closes above EMA 48 on the H4 chart, it will indicate the upward trend. Thus, you should enter long positions. Otherwise, if the candlestick closes below EMA 48 on the H4 chart, it will indicate the downward trend. Consequently, you should enter short positions

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    The price is in line with EMA 48. It is a sideways mid-term trend. You can enter both long and short positions.


    4. Short-term trend analysis

    A short-term trend is the trend in the H1 time frame. Moreover, it can show an entry point into the market. We turn to EMA 48 again. If the candlestick closes above EMA 48 on the H1 chart, it will indicate the upward trend. Thus, you should enter long positions. Alternatively, if the candlestick closes below EMA 48, it will indicate the downward trend. Consequently, you should enter short positions.

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    The price is below EMA 48. It is a downward short-term trend. You can sell the instrument. The long-term trend, the mid-term trend, and the short-term trend are not in line.


    5. Japanese candlestick analysis

    A classic Japanese candlestick analysis is applied to the daily time frame. The daily candlestick is analyzed.

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    The white daily candlestick closed upward. Its high is above the high of the previous candlestick. It is a Hammer candlestick pattern, headed upward and with a long upper shadow. The upward trend is highly likely. The price broke the low of the last three candlesticks. The downward trend is likely.


    6. Conclusion

    Volume analysis – BUY/SELL.
    Long-term trend analysis – BUY.
    Mid-term trend analysis – BUY/SELL.
    Short-term trend analysis – SELL.
    Japanese candlestick analysis – SELL.

    Conclusion: You can buy and sell ETH/TUSD on April 7, 2021, since varios analysis provide different forecasts


    7. Statistics

    To analyze how effective this approach is, the data on completed transactions is tracked. The forecast is made for four instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, BCH/USD. Statement:

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    The ETH/TUSD trade closed at a Stop Loss and brought a small profit.

    A Stop Loss for new trades is placed beyond the daily extreme points. We do not set a Take Profit because we will continue to move the Stop Loss above the extreme points of the upcoming sessions.

    Since trading is carried out on daily charts, this recommendation is relevant throughout the day.

    Trade with the trend and you will generate profits!




    Maxim Petrov
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    Retail investors dictate the fate of Bitcoin

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    Bitcoin is currently trading around $ 60,000. But quite recently, market sentiment has changed, which means that players are no longer willing to respond to news about Bitcoin investments. Therefore, the market needs an influx of new investors for it to undergo another strong growth.

    At the same time, approximately 40% of bitcoin investors are small or retail. They bought the cryptocurrency just so they can gain profit as quickly as possible, which means that they will drop it at any time, especially if they think that the upward trend is ending. This is not good for the market because it means that the BTC portfolio will not be sustained. But if large players buy up all the coins that went on sale immediately, then there will simply be a redistribution of owners, not a significant price change. Bitcoin's value will decrease only if supply exceeds demand.

    But the stumbling block in seeing new investors is that the governments of almost every country in the world view cryptocurrencies as something that finances terrorism, criminal operations and money laundering. In fact, UK authorities foresee that cybercrimes related to cryptocurrencies will surge, so the fight against Bitcoin will continue. However, this should not affect prices very much.

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    And technically, nothing has changed in Bitcoin yet. There is no downward correction even if buyers failed to overcome $ 60,000 again. Nevertheless, the main cryptocurrency is walking on thin ice and any large sell off can trigger a strong collapse. To be more specific, dropping below $ 52,300 or $ 44,000 will provoke a very sharp downward movement.



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    Paolo Greco
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    Anthony Scaramucci: more companies should be holding bitcoin

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    Anthony Scaramucci, a former White House communications director and now the head of the SkyBridge hedge fund, believes that more companies should be holding bitcoin because a flood of stimulus money in the US economy is growing at a rapid pace. This will inevitably lead to depreciation in the US dollar and other currencies in global markets. Therefore, to protect themselves from inflation risks, companies should buy bitcoin, the emission of which is limited. According to Scaramucci, bitcoin has the potential to standardize money again, and that will be beneficial to lower and middle class. Unless the US dollar is digitalized anytime soon, bitcoin could become the single global currency as it is not influenced by policymakers. The number of bitcoins will not change, which means that over time, when all of the tokens are mined and distributed, the cryptocurrency rate should stabilize. Then bitcoin will become much less volatile than it is today, and will be able to perform the functions of ordinary fiat money. So, it will be possible to keep your savings in bitcoins without inflation risks and pay for any goods and services. Scaramucci predicts that "digital gold" can grow up to $100,000 per token as soon as 2021. In fact, he admits that bitcoin can move much higher than that in the near future.

    From our point of view, bitcoin has a certain potential to conquer the global market. However, no one can predict for sure that this will happen. Unfortunately, bitcoin, like any other cryptocurrency, can be considered a bubble since BTC is not supported or backed by anything, and, therefore, has no intrinsic value. Let's imagine that bitcoin has become the world's digital currency. What will happen to other cryptocurrencies then? They might also be used in settlements or for investment purposes. Fiat money will not disappear either, which means it will remain in the global financial system. Moreover, new tokens and blockchain-based technologies appear almost every day. If it goes like this, in a couple of years you will need to own the coins of this particular store to shop for groceries. Also, we should keep in mind that global central banks are actively exploring the possibilities of launching their digital currencies. For example, the digital version of the US dollar may appear in a few years. How will this huge number of digital currencies, fiat money, and tokens compete with each other? And does the world really need so many different ways of payment? So far, there is no certainty that at least one bitcoin will ever become stable and will be accepted for payment and settlements all over the world.

    In general, bitcoin remains a fairly popular investment instrument, but no more than that. It still has to go through the crisis in 2021-2022. It is believed that a fast and full recovery of the world's key economies will lead to the outflow of investments from cryptocurrencies, and investors will resort to more traditional instruments. So, the fact that bitcoin is now at the top does not mean it will remain there next year. Moreover, we all know how fast and to what extent the bitcoin price may fall.



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    Bullish setup in Litecoin

    Litecoin has broken out and above the triangle pattern it was in. Price broke out 2 days ago and today price was back testing the upper triangle boundary. A bounce off the triangle upper boundary and broken resistance will be an important bullish signal.

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    Blue lines- triangle pattern

    Red rectangle - back test area

    LTC/USD is making higher highs and higher lows. Price has broken above the triangle resistance at $214 and moved as high as $244. Price has pulled back and touched the break out area shown by the red rectangle. Bouncing off this area will be a bullish sign and a confirmation that this level is now support. Resistance is at $244 and as long as price is above $214, I expect price to continue higher and break above $244.



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    Alexandros Yfantis
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    Bitcoin challenges major channel support

    Bitcoin has pulled back from the resistance at $59,000 to $55,000 and the lower channel boundary. Price remains inside the upward sloping medium-term channel and as long as this is the case, we will continue expecting new highs. The inverted head and shoulders pattern is still valid but only gets activated if price breaks above $59,000-$60,000 neckline.

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    Blue lines - bullish channel

    Red rectangle -neckline resistance

    BTC/USD got rejected at the resistance yesterday and has pulled back towards the lower channel boundary. Bitcoin remains vulnerable to a bigger correction towards $40,000 but as long as it stays inside the bullish channel, bulls continue to have hopes. Bulls will regain full control of the trend specially if price breaks above the red rectangle resistance targeting $75,000 next.




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    Alexandros Yfantis
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    Trading Signal for Bitcoin BTC/USD, for April 07 - 08, 2021: Key level $56,250

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    The price of Bitcoin has found support at the $56,250 zone, the 200 EMA zone on the 4-hour charts and below the 21 SMA, trading within a range from $60,000 to $56,000.

    A look at market sentiment shows that traders are still holding leveraged long positions. These positions, analyst Filbfilb believes, must be liquidated before Bitcoin can make a meaningful attempt to hit new all-time highs.

    Regarding altcoins, their strong performance is diminished, with Ether again below its all-time marker of $ 2,000 and moving away from all-time highs.

    In the case of BTC / USD, the 200 EMA is expected to be its last support to give it the strength it needs and surpass its record mark.

    Below the 200 EMA, we expect it to continue its decline to the key 50,000 support and psychological level.

    We recommend buying above $56,250, and selling below $55,800, as Murray's +1/8 zone is key and we should keep an eye out for positions to the upside or downside.


    Support And Resistance Levels For April 07 - 08, 2021

    Resistance (1) $57,648
    Resistance (2) $59,281
    Resistance (3) $60,460

    Support (1) $55,166
    Support (2) $52,354
    Support (3) $49,872



    Dimitrios Zappas
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    Bitcoin Local and Global Perspectives: "big evolution", GS and ETF

    Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon expressed the opinion that a "big evolution" could soon take place in the cryptocurrency market. Now the largest investment bank has already started providing depository services. But in this industry, traditional financial institutions are still severely limited.

    Solomon noted that now there is an increase in interest in the cryptocurrency industry from the bank's clients and Goldman Sachs is in a constant way of being able to satisfy it.

    So, according to the head of the investment bank, significant changes may occur in the crypto market over the next two years. And back in March, Mathew McDermott of GS announced that the point of no return in their role as a safeguard against depreciation of cryptocurrencies has already been passed. But he believes that due to the large selection of digital coins, bitcoin is unlikely to maintain its dominance.

    According to Goldman Sachs, the demand in the virtual currency market is now higher than it was in 2017. This is due to the growing interest of institutional investors, but which ones, the bank did not specify.

    Meanwhile, the bank has filed an application with the SEC to launch its own bitcoin ETF.

    Experts' opinions differ on how the approval and launch of exchange-traded funds for bitcoin will affect the crypto market.

    Some believe that this will give greater freedom to large investors who are interested in digital currencies but are confused by the issue of regulation. Also, the ETF will remove the issue of concern about the security of bitcoins from such market participants.

    Others point out that with the advent of ETFs, bitcoin will become mainstream in the financial world, which means that the market will receive a new impetus for growth.

    Another opinion confirms that the launch of an exchange-traded fund will bring new investors and capital to the market, increase liquidity, but may become a double-edged sword. The flip side of the coin may be the emergence of a need for market centralization. Moreover, the arrival of a large number of speculators on the market can provoke frequent episodes of "short play."

    But some believe that the launch of a bitcoin ETF in the US will not have a significant impact on the market. Experts with this opinion appeal to the experience of Canada, where such exchange-traded funds are already operating. Moreover, despite the permission of the country's authorities for ETFs, bitcoin still fell from $58,000 to $44,000 per coin.

    Nevertheless, locally, bitcoin did not manage to break through the "ill-fated" resistance area of 58,340.66 - 59,517.79. As expected in yesterday's review, the BTC/USD quotes fell to the level of 100 according to Fibo Expansion, which is still relevant as a support. If it holds, there is a chance of recovery to the resistance zone 58,340.66 - 59,517.79. And if it is broken with a consolidation below, bitcoin may decline first to the area of $54,000, and then to $51,000 per coin.

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    Ekaterina Kiseleva
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    Experts believe that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of 2021: Is BTC an ideal investment now?

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    Wall Street banks, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley allow customers to own BTC. MicroStrategy continues to vehemently add bitcoin to its reserves. And giant corporations like PayPal, Mastercard, Starbucks, and Tesla have given the green light to accept bitcoin as payment. However, Bitcoin will not be able to overcome the price extremum of $61,000 and go into accelerated growth without the huge influence of buyers. Unfortunately, BTC has failed to reach the $60,000 milestone three times already. Bitcoin needs momentum and constant testing of the $60,000 level. With strong resistance, there is a huge probability that the cryptocurrency will break through this bar.

    The reduction in bitcoin's volatility will probably lead to huge profits. Banks can set a long-term target value of $100 - $120,000 per cryptocurrency, as it is the best alternative asset for investors. Many experts are adamant that bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of 2021. Given the current value of $56,500, a huge number of people purchase BTC since:

    -There is a great demand for digital use.
    -The need for decentralization is increasing.
    -Having spread its wings, blockchain is in great demand.
    -Famous traders and influencers store BTC and promote it to the mainstream.





    Vitaly Kolesnikov
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