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Thread: Cryptocurrency Analysis

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    BITCOIN: Yellen to deal with Bitcoin and cryptocurrency regulation. China loses grip, and Facebook to launch Diem stablecoin

    While bitcoin is gradually licking its wounds after the big drop we witnessed over the weekend, major investment bank Morgan Stanley made a statement that digital currencies, which will be issued by central banks of many countries, will not pose a threat to the existence of cryptocurrencies in the near future. The bank is confident that both types of digital currencies can coexist with each other because they serve different purposes and have different attractiveness.

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    Digital national currency and crypto industry

    The European Central Bank made a similar statement recently, noting that digital currencies have little to do with cryptocurrencies, which the bank considers speculative assets.

    Morgan Stanley is confident that after the launch of digital currencies, cryptocurrencies will still exist, as they serve slightly different purposes and are used in very different ways - for example, as a store of value. There are a number of people who do not trust fiat money and banks - cryptocurrencies are quite an appropriate alternative for them. Bitcoin and other tokens can also act as a pretty good speculative instrument. The report indicated that investor interest in cryptocurrencies has recently grown along with an unprecedented response from governments to the coronavirus pandemic through monetary and fiscal policy. But for whom digital currencies pose a risk, so it is for stablecoins.

    Recently, an increasing number of central banks have shown great interest in issuing their own digital currencies. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) reports that 86% of the world's central banks study digital currencies at various stages.

    In his recent speech, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan also noted that he considers bitcoin a "store of value," highlighting the differences between cryptocurrencies like bitcoins and central bank digital currencies. One of the main problems with bitcoin is that it is not completely clear how widely it will be accepted by society. According to Kaplan, the world's first cryptocurrency is nothing more than the role of savings.

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    China loses grip on the crypto industry

    The Chinese authorities no longer intend to wage an active fight against cryptocurrencies, which was launched by the government four years ago. It seems that now the tone of the Central Bank has changed. According to a recent statement from the chairman of the People's Bank of China, the regulator is working to create a good cryptocurrency regulatory framework that can be relied on in future decisions. Li Bo stated that he views bitcoin and stablecoins as crypto assets. First of all, these are investment alternatives. Cryptocurrency is not a currency per se. "The main role we see for crypto assets in the future is investment direction," said the chairman of the People's Bank of China. Such a statement implies an unprecedented change in Beijing's tone on cryptocurrencies.

    Today it also became known that the Biden administration is not going to sit still and is preparing a new legislative framework for regulating cryptocurrencies. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and her deputy Wally Adeyemo will lead the drafting of new laws that will focus on crypto infrastructure and taxation.

    Let me remind you that recently the SEC has changed its chairman, who is known for his loyalty to the cryptocurrency market. Gary Gensler is a cryptocurrency expert - and he has expressed his opinion on numerous occasions. It is expected that the SEC will soon develop clearer rules for regulating this area. The new chairman, Gary Gensler, recently announced in an interview with Bloomberg that the topic of cryptocurrencies and the regulation of this area coincides with the goals of the SEC, and this issue has been closely monitored by the regulator.

    As for the technical picture of Bitcoin, it has stabilized a little. At the moment, trading is carried out within the side channel of $53,400-$57,300, and the further direction of the cryptocurrency depends on which of these levels is broken. A breakout of $53,400 will lead to an immediate fall to the support area of $49,400 and $44,900. If buyers are active and manage to pull BTC above $57,300, a rapid rise to $61,000 and $64,500 can be expected.

    Facebook - Libra - Diem

    And in conclusion, I would like to briefly tell you that Facebook will soon launch testing of its Diem stablecoin. It is scheduled to launch in the second half of this year. Let me remind you that initially, Facebook was planning to release a token called Libra, which was conceived as a universal digital means of payment. However, the SEC did not like this very much, and the company decided not to cut the regulator, postponing this idea for the future. At the moment, the developers are working on the release of several stablecoins, backed by different national currencies.



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    Jakub Novak
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    Ichimoku cloud continues to support Bitcoin

    Bitcoin touched the upper cloud boundary for the third straight day and did not break down. Price today reached $53,370 but is now once again above $56k. The Ichimoku cloud provides confirmed support and as long as we trade above it, we remain bullish.

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    Bitcoin is bouncing off the cloud support. This is a bullish sign. Resistance by the tenkan-sen (Red line indicator) and the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) is at $57,720. Recapturing this level and staying above it is crucial for the short-term trend.The Chikou span (black line indicator) is still above the candlestick pattern, confirming that trend remains bullish. As we explained yesterday, a break inside the cloud would turn daily trend to neutral.




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    Alexandros Yfantis
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    Growing investments in crypto assets, but Bitcoin is in between two directions

    Bitcoin has stabilized after the collapse. On the chart of the main cryptocurrency, there is a sideways trend. However, this is not accurate, since its upper limit has not yet been confirmed for the second time, which means that there is a chance to see consecutive lows and the formation of a downward trend.

    On Monday, the support level of 53980.47, marked with a dotted line, resisted. The price recovered after the false breakdown, but has not yet reached the outlined resistance of 57513.35 (blue dotted line). If it reaches this limit and rebounds down, there will be reasons to expect consolidation in the sideways direction.

    Another technically possible scenario within these borders can also be considered. We are talking about the intermediate mirror level of 100 according to Fibo Expansion (55760.58), which broke through in both directions during the first day of the week and has now prevented the price to rise. And if it works as a resistance, then it is possible to break the border of 53980.47 when declining.

    However, these are local scenarios. Even if the BTC/USD pair stops for some time in the sideways direction in the medium-term, there are still two possible scenarios for the development of events. If there is a breakdown and consolidation below the support level of 53,980.47, Bitcoin could decline further to $ 50,000 per BTC. But if the local resistance of 57513.35 is broken and the price consolidates above it, there will be a chance to recover at least $ 60,000 per BTC.

    Meanwhile, the interest in cryptocurrency assets has not subsided. Most likely, it was supported by last week's sensational event. CoinShares, a digital asset management company, has published another report. It notes that from there was an increase in interest in cryptocurrency assets from April 12 to 17. Investments in them increased by $ 233 million. This is almost a threefold increase. In March, the maximum investment volume reached $ 150 million.

    It is worth noting that this is the same week that the Coinbase listing took place. At the same time, there was an update of the historical high for Bitcoin, as a result of which its price rose to $ 64883 per coin. But in the end, the main cryptocurrency collapsed to $ 52,000.

    From the Coinbase report, it became known that investments were made in completely different cryptocurrency assets. $ 108 million was invested in Bitcoin-related products, while interest in Ethereum-related products totaled $ 65 million. On the other side, Ripple-related instruments accounted for 33 million and the amount of XRP assets under management amounted to $ 83 million.

    There was also an increase in the volume of trading in cryptocurrency investment products by 59% during the week.

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    Ekaterina Kiseleva
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    A key factor that plays a fundamental role in Ethereum's growth in 2021

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    Over the past months, Ethereum has been withdrawn from the exchanges every day. The presence of a bullish trend is immediately noticeable. And if Ethereum leaves the crypto exchanges in the near future, it will have the opportunity to voice its importance in the crypto arena, and other tokens will have chances to prove themselves.

    About 7 million ETH has been used from August 2020 to today, which is about 30% of the exchange's reserve. We can contemplate a clear bullish trend. The price of Ether has increased very much in April, and it is likely that the digital asset intends to go for new heights. But the legitimate concern about the pretext of the outflow of exchange-traded assets was demonstrated in 2017, when it was transferred from exchanges to cold wallets. The question is: what will happen this year?

    At the moment, the supply of Ethereum liquid is reduced, as it is blocked by the DeFi protocols. According to many expert data, more than ten million ETH are blocked. At the same time, storing ether on exchanges in 2017 was not the apogee of convenience, and now even more so: 3.8 million ETH were placed on ETH2 contracts worth more than $ 8 billion.

    The decline in liquidity on the exchange increases in practical use, where the formation is clearly visible compared to 2017. Institutional attention and huge demand are seen as an additional plus. Since the liquid supply on the stock exchanges is exhausted, the demand will grow rapidly during this period.




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    Bitcoin continues to fall in price on Wednesday! The total minus is already $9,300

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    Bitcoin quotes recovered slightly after falling on Sunday, and all the movements on Monday and Tuesday were pretty calm. These days, bitcoin could resume growth or continue to fall with equal probability. Now, the hour of rethinking has come in the cryptocurrency market. All private and large investors need to clearly decide what to do next. At the same time, the strategy of actions for the first and for the second is absolutely different. If small investors can't keep bitcoins in their account for years, large and institutional investors can. If small investors start to dump bitcoin, feeling its collapse, the main question will be whether the institutions will be able to buy all the coins to prevent a further drop in bitcoin. In any case, we believe that the pullback down to $15,000 in the moment will not end. It can be seen perfectly in the illustration below that the upward trend is weakening. Each subsequent peak is located at a smaller distance from the previous one than the previous one. Now, bitcoin is kept afloat, because it rested on the support level of $50,770, which is the previous local minimum. Thus, in the near future, we expect a new drop in quotes to this mark.

    The fundamental background for bitcoin in recent days is also quite unpleasant. In China, there was a failure in the supply of electricity in one of the largest regions in the world for mining. The Ministry of Finance is rumored to be preparing large fines for several financial institutions for laundering money through bitcoin. And the top management of the recently released NASDAQ crypto exchange Coinbase sold off almost all of its shares unexpectedly for many. In addition, it became known that the regulatory institutions of South Korea intend to join forces in the fight against illegal transactions in the network of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. South Korean authorities have issued official instructions to all local financial institutions to strengthen control over all financial transactions and report any suspicious transactions.

    It is important to remember that for the constant growth of Bitcoin quotes, a constant new influx of investment in this network is required. If the investment ends, bitcoin will not grow. During the last upward trend, many institutional investors turned their attention to BTC, but according to many experts, everyone who wanted to buy bitcoin has already done so. In general, the conclusion is the same: if tomorrow Tesla does not make a statement that it wants to buy bitcoins for another $1.5 billion, or something like that, it will be extremely difficult for the cryptocurrency to continue growing.

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    In technical terms, bitcoin is fixed below the critical line, as well as below the ascending channel. Thus, according to all the canons of technical analysis and the Ichimoku indicator, a downward correction should now follow. However, we should also pay attention to one important fact: BTC quotes fell exactly to the previous local low near the level of $ 50,770. And they bounced off him. Thus, further downward movement is impossible without overcoming this level. Below, traders are waiting for only support of $43,850, but some analysts also give the support level of $37,500 as a target for a possible fall in Bitcoin. We also allocate another local minimum – $30,500.




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    China revises its crypto policy

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    Bitcoin is still under bears' control given the negative fundamental background of recent days. Nevertheless, there is definitely good news as well. In general, bitcoin has only slightly corrected. It remains the number one cryptocurrency during the last 2 years. No wonder, many investors closely monitor its trajectory any change in its value causes a sharp reaction from market participants. Thus, when bitcoin has recently dropped by $10,000-15,000, panic swept across the market. However, almost all experts and analysts agree that bitcoin has already become an integral part of the modern financial system. In the future, it will only cement its position in the financial arena. Many believe that bitcoin may totally replace all fiat money, while others reckon that it will be an international currency. There is an opinion that bitcoin will simply coexist next to fiat money, other cryptocurrencies, as well as with stablecoins from central banks. Hence, bitcoin is unlikely to disappear from the market.

    Recently, Li Bo, the deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, said that bitcoin should already be considered as an investment tool. This is an important milestone in cryptocurrency history as one of the largest central banks in the world accepts bitcoin and believes in its prospects. "We believe that Bitcoin and stablecoins are encrypted assets," said Li. "Encrypted assets are an investment option, not the currency itself. It is an alternative investment, not currency itself. Therefore, we believe that crypto-assets should play a major role in the future, either as an investment tool or as an alternative investment," he said. This is almost the first time that the Chinese authorities have begun to recognize bitcoin and its value, Journalist Colin Wu noted. "In the future, if any stablecoin hopes to become a widely used payment tool, it must be subject to strict supervision, just like banks or quasi-bank financial institutions are subject to strict supervision," the PBoC deputy governor pinpointed.

    At the same time, the head of Ark Invest, Katie Wood, said that bitcoin could be one of the most promising innovations. In the future, it can become a new gold standard. The gold standard is a system where the value of all money is linked and backed by a certain amount of gold. According to Wood, the number of bitcoin coins will always remain the same, which will protect the cryptocurrency from depreciation, inflation, or the influence of governments or central banks on it. Earlier, analysts at ArkInvest predicted an increase in the value of bitcoin from $100,000 to $500,000 per coin. According to the experts of the investment fund, the price will depend on what the shares of bitcoin in the investment portfolios of institutional investors will be. If large companies invest only 1% of their money in bitcoin, its value can easily grow to $100,000. The investment of 6% of funds to bitcoin will lead to an increase of up to $0.5 million per coin.




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    Paolo Greco
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    Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for April 21, 2021

    Crypto Industry News:
    The Facebook-backed digital currency project Diem could launch its first stablecoin as early as 2021 as a small-scale pilot project, according to an anonymous source.

    A source cited in a media report said the Swiss nonprofit The Diem Association still intends to launch a US dollar-backed stablecoin pilot later this year.

    In November 2020, the association already announced its plans to limit the introduction of a US dollar-linked stablecoin in January, but months have passed and the currency has yet to see the light of day.

    Stablecoin Diem is a greatly scaled down and revised version of Facebook's original vision for a global digital currency, native to its platform, that would be tied to a basket of multiple fiat currencies. In addition to ditching the Libra name, commentators pointed to profound changes to the developing Diam project in response to striking backlash from global regulators and nation states.


    Technical Market Outlook:
    The ETH/USD pair has retraced more then 61% of the last wave down and made a local high at the level of $2,359 during the bounce. This level has been used to test the short-term lower channel line for a test and the higher prices were rejected as the Pin Bar candlestick had been made. The market reversed towards the local technical support located at the level of $2,274 and is trading around this level currently. Any violation of this level would lead to another wave down towards the level of $2,201 and $2,098.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $3,314
    WR2 - $2,2828
    WR1 - $2,524

    Weekly Pivot - $2,211
    WS1 - $1,914
    WS2 - $1,617
    WS3 - $1,300


    Trading Recommendations:
    The longer term up trend on the Ethereum continues despite the local counter-trend corrections. When the correction is terminated, the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $2,500. The key long term technical support is seen at the level of $2,000, so only a weekly candle close below this level will invalidate the bullish scenario.

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    Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for April 21, 2021

    Crypto Industry News:
    Less than a week after the listing of the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the US, Nasdaq is expected to start trading options for Coinbase Global.

    According to a media report, a Coinbase representative said COIN.O options will be available on Nasdaq on Tuesday, April 20. Introducing stock options will provide investors with a new way to invest. Stock options are the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a share at a specified price, known as the strike price, on or before the expiry date. This message follows Coinbase's direct listing. On the first day of trading, the company's shares oscillated between $ 429.54 and $ 310.

    Reuters estimates that Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong sold about $ 292 million worth of shares on the first day of COIN trading. According to documents filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Armstrong sold 749,999 shares in three lots at prices ranging from $ 381 to $ 410.40 per share, for a total income of $ 291.8 million, but this is less than 2% all his shares.

    Information on the Coinbase Investor Relations website revealed that 12,965,079 shares worth more than $ 4.6 billion were sold at the close on Friday at a price of $ 344.


    Technical Market Outlook:
    The BTC/USD pair keeps consolidating between the levels of $57,330 - $53,290 after a bounce from the level of $50,313 had been capped at the level of $57,333, which is just below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down seen at the level of $57,717. The key short-term technical resistance is located at the level of $58,345 and the nearest technical support is seen at $55,501. The longer time frame chart still shows the up trend is intact.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $77,128
    WR2 - $70,098
    WR1 - $62,765

    Weekly Pivot - $56,867
    WS1 - $48,657
    WS2 - $42,481
    WS3 - $34,723


    Trading Recommendations:
    The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $50,000 is clearly broken on the e daily time frame chart.

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    Ethereum Ends Its Correction!

    Ethereum bounced back after registering a temporary decline. Now the cryptocurrency is trading at $2,304.16 versus $2,055.00 yesterday's low. Technically, the bias remains bullish despite the short-term retreat.

    A minor decline was expected after ETH/USD reached a strong resistance area. The downside momentum was stopped by a former higher high which now acts as strong static support.

    Ethereum could resume its growth after moving sideways in the short term. Bitcoin's growth could force ETH/USD to approach new all-time highs.

    ETH/USD LOOKS TO TRADE HIGHER AGAIN!

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    ETH/USD has found support right on the $2,040 level. The false breakdown with great separation through it followed by a retest signaled that the price could come back higher as the decrease is over.

    Now it has jumped above the weekly pivot ($2,246.64) which is seen as a bullish signal. It has reached the second warning line (WL2) which represents a dynamic resistance. Registering a valid breakout above the WL2 signals a strong growth ahead.


    ETHEREUM FORECAST!

    A minor consolidation above the pivot point ($2,246.64) followed by a new higher high, jump above $2,365.75 is seen as a bullish signal. The R1 ($2,542.22) could be used as a first upside target.



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