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Thread: Cryptocurrency Analysis

  1. #31
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    Bitcoin holds above $12,000.
    07 August 2019

    Bitcoin has been quite volatile recently after breaking above the $12,000 area but failed to keep it up and had a major retreat. Though the price drastically fell below $11,500 today, it still managed to climb above $12,000 again.

    The journey towards the $13,800 area is not going to be an easy one for Bitcoin as it has found strong resistance at $12,000 which is expected to play a vital role in the upcoming rally of the cryptocurrency. Although the price is struggling to break above the $12,000 area, the bullish bias is still quite strong. This, bitcoin is likely to soar above the recent high of $13,800 and reach the psychological price area of $15,000 by the end of August.

    Besides, Bitcoin's growth has been quite exponential leaving a significant mark on world finance. Currently, it is crowned as the 11th largest money supply in the world. Bitcoin's market capitalization is over $200 billion which is larger than most of the world economies like Australia, Canada, or Brazil. Bitcoin is even competing with gold. The yellow metal has a market capitalization of $8 trillion. However, the growth of Bitcoin is quite impressive, while the technology of decentralized money transaction is assumed to be the future of finance.

    As for the current scenario, Bitcoin is supported by encouraging fundamentals, and the positive market sentiment is expected to lead to the rise of the cryptocurrency in the coming days. It may reach the $15,000 area in the nearest future if no negative news strikes.


    TECHNICAL OVERVIEW:
    Bitcoin is trading above the $12,000 area at the moment, climbing above the Kumo Cloud dynamic resistance area. The dynamic levels are currently crossing over each other, and the bullish signal is quite strong. As far as the price remains above $11,500 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue and push the price higher towards the $13,800 area and later towards $15,000 in the coming days.

    TECHNICAL LEVELS:

    SUPPORT- 10,500 / 11,000 / 11,500 / 12,000

    RESISTANCE- 12,500 / 13,300 / 13,800 / 15,000

    BIAS- Bullish

    MOMENTUM- Volatile

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  2. #32
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    Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 08 August 2019

    Crypto Industry News:
    In a local online magazine Gustavo Franco looks at the Libra project from Facebook and the potential of cryptocurrencies in the field of traditional economy. The former president of the Brazilian Central Bank also allows himself very favorable comments on digital assets:

    "Bitcoin is the most spectacular of cryptocurrencies, and the business built around it can be worth up to $ 175 billion (the value of all BTC in circulation). The difference, however, is that there are no shares, no shareholders or top-down management, " wrote Franco, who was the chairman of the Brazilian central bank twice in the 1990s, and then became a private investor and founded the company Rio Bravo Investimentos.

    In his article, Franco focuses not only on the potential Bitcoin itself but also on the opportunities offered by cryptocurrencies marketed by huge corporations, which in the future may exclude traditional banks from the financial equation.

    In his opinion, projects such as Libra, despite the lack of advantages associated with decentralization, are still a big threat to current financial institutions, and if a cryptocurrency appears on the market, it may soon be joined by similar instruments of other corporations: "McDonald's could create a Mac, a convertible cryptocurrency for sandwiches in restaurant chains. In turn, Starbucks would introduce the Star token, for which users would buy their favorite coffee" Franco goes ahead.


    Technical Market Overview:
    The ETH/USD pair has made a local low at the level of $219.27 after the technical support zone located between the levels of $224.95 - $221.50 had been violated. Moreover, the price is trading below the short-term decreasing trendline resistance, which indicated the corrective pullback might take a while. Any breakout above the trendline will be a first bullish signal with a target at the level of $238.68.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $260.89
    WR2 - $241.83
    WR1 - $232.61

    Weekly Pivot - $214.73
    WS1 - $206.31
    WS2 - $187.76
    WS3 - $178.82


    Trading Recommendations:
    The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later. We are waiting for a breakout above the level of $235.42 to confirm the bullish momentum.

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  3. #33
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    Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 08 August 2019

    Crypto Industry News:
    Amazon wants to hire a software development engineer to develop the Blockchain advertising chain. The company published a job offer for a software development engineer on LinkedIn who is to work on a new solution. The online retail giant aims to expand its advertising business through the use of online retail data, industry-leading cloud services, and a rapidly growing startup culture.

    The role of the selected engineer will be to analyze requirements, conduct design, implement basic components, cooperate with engineers and program managers. The position will also be responsible for operational support and system maintenance.

    In addition, the engineer "will also be able to define the technical and architectural plan of systems' operation". The company has noted that it prefers candidates with experience in advertising, financial technology, and Blockchain.


    Technical Market Overview:
    The BTC/USD pair has made a new high at the level of $12,269 and then the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made, which made the price to reverse towards the level of $11,068. This technical support level has almost been hit, but the price has bounced again. From the Elliott wave point of view, it looks like the wave 1 might have been completed already and now the market is unfolding corrective wave 2. Wave 2 might be a more complex and time-consuming corrective pattern, so it is worth to keep an eye on the ongoing developments. So far all the moves up and down had been made in three waves only.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $13,750
    WR2 - $12,333
    WR1 - $11,817


    Weekly Pivot - $10,382
    WS1 - $9,882
    WS2 - $8,441
    WS3 - $7,9485


    Trading Recommendations:
    The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up.

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  4. #34
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    Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 12 August 2019

    Crypto Industry News:
    Some analysts believe that the upcoming no-deal Brexit will drive Bitcoin's price to an unprecedented breakthrough and record highs in 2019. Some even predict that this can fundamentally change Bitcoin's place in the global economy.

    Brexit is already causing market turmoil. The prospect of Brexit without an agreement has already resulted in a loss of pound sterling relative to other leading currencies. This tendency has been growing since the appointment of the hardened Brexiteer, Boris Johnson, as Prime Minister of Great Britain. Johnson promised that Britain would leave the European Union on October 31, 2019.

    Leaving the EU without agreement will cause confusion and volatility in the two main fiat currencies, and will also cause an identity crisis in the global system, as unforeseen situations and vulnerabilities of the main global fiat currencies have been highlighted. Some say this will prevent capital from escaping to Bitcoin as a safe haven, causing prices to soar.

    The concerns of the Confederation of British Industry that Brexit would be a trap of economic chaos without agreement mean that Bitcoin's position in the global economy can change fundamentally. In 2020, we expect an increasingly populist and politically unstable world to consolidate the status of a safe haven for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies more generally. And if central banks start increasing money printing again, arguments about cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, whose supply is limited, will be further strengthened.


    Technical Market Overview:
    The BTC/USD pair has been trading inside of the narrow range for some time now, consolidating the recent gains after the bounce from the level of $9,049. The local technical support located at the level of $11,027 has been tested during the consolidation cycle and the low of this test has been labeled as the low of the wave 2. It means the market is ready to continue the uptrend towards the new highs, but first, it will have to break out above the levels of $11,855, $12,008 and $12,269.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $13,583
    WR2 - $12,879
    WR1 - $12,118

    Weekly Pivot - $11,389
    WS1 - $10,550
    WS2 - $9,816
    WS3 - $9,007


    Trading Recommendations:
    The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree.

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  5. #35
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    Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 12 August 2019

    Crypto Industry News:
    Computer analysts at Zscaler ThreatLabZ, a cybersecurity company, have discovered a new type of Trojan attacking cryptocurrency users.

    In a blog post, the company reveals that it has identified a new remote access Trojan (RAT) that is able to take over administrative control of the target computer, gain access to browser history and search for activities related to cryptocurrencies, credit cards, companies, social media, among other.

    Malware is called Saefko and is written in .NET, a software framework developed by Microsoft and used to create a wide range of applications.

    "RATs are usually downloaded as a result of the user opening an attachment to an email or downloading an application or game that has been infected with it. Because RAT provides administrative control, an intruder can do anything on the target computer, such as monitoring user behavior by logging keystrokes, accessing confidential information, activating the system's webcam, taking screenshots, formatting disks, and more "- explains the post.

    Zscaler recommends that individuals do not download or open files from untrusted sources and states that network administrators should block unused ports, disable unused services, and monitor outbound traffic.


    Technical Market Overview:
    The ETH/USD pair has broken out of the descending channel around the level of $208.50 and now is trying to continue the rally higher towards the level of $221.50, which is the technical resistance. The low was made at the level of $196.98 and it was labeled as wave (c) of the wave (2) of higher degree, which indicated, the market might be ready to continue the trend. In order to do this, the price action must be more impulsive and move towards the nearest technical resistance and break through it. Otherwise, the corrective move to the downside will evolve into a more complex and time-consuming pattern.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $274.14
    WR2 - $256.36
    WR1 - $233.10

    Weekly Pivot - $214.72
    WS1 - $193.28
    WS2 - $173.99
    WS3 - $150.66


    Trading Recommendations:
    The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later. We are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the bullish momentum.

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  6. #36
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    BTC. Potential completion of ABC downward correction
    12 August 2019

    Industry news:
    While Binance US, the American branch of major cryptocurrency exchange Binance, included four stablecoins among its 30 potential candidates to be listed on this upcoming platform, no Binance IEOs (initial exchange offerings) are on the list.

    Hyped projects such as BitTorrent (47th by market capitalization), Fetch.AI (207), Celer (180) and Matic Network (127), that raised capital on the Binance Launchpad platform, have been left outside of the list alongside with many other coins, including Tron (13th by market capitalization).

    (Meanwhile, competing major American exchange Coinbase is considering the addition of new assets, including Harmony and Matic, both of which offered tokens to the public via the Binance Launchpad.)

    b-p-120819.jpg

    BTC has been trading lower in past 24 hours but it found support at the price of $11.200. There is potential for the completion of the ABC downward correction and my advice is to watch for buying opportunities.

    Blue horizontal line: Support ($11.200)

    Red lines – ABC legs

    Yellow rectangle – Key resistance zone ($12.000-$12.250)

    Stochastic oscillator is showing the oversold condition and the fresh flip up, which is sign that sellers got "too short" and that rally is possible. BTC did stop at the lower Bollinger band, which is another sign of the oversold condition.


    Trading recommendation:
    According to current market conditions, my advice is to watch for buying opportunities and go with the direction of the overall trend. Targets are seen at the price of $12.015 and $12.250.



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  7. #37
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    Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 13 August 2019

    Crypto Industry News:
    The People's Bank of China (PBoC) claimed that its digital currency "can be said to be ready."

    According to the deputy director of PBoC, Mu Changchuna, the prototype that adopts Blockchain architecture was successfully developed after five years of research. His statement, made at the China Finance 40 Forum, was announced by the local news service Shanghai Securities News.

    He said digital currency emission using pure Blockchain architecture is difficult to achieve in a country as large as China because retailers require high-performance concurrency.

    The digital currency will also adopt a two-tier operating system to satisfy a "complex economy with a vast territory and large population." In this system, PBoC will be at a higher level and commercial banks at a lower level. According to Mu, this will improve accessibility, increase adoption rates among the public, and promote innovation among commercial entities.

    According to the director of PBoC, the digital currency is designed to be suitable for "small high-frequency retail business scenarios."

    As reported by Cointelegraph, PBoC plans to overtake the US and Libra Facebook by releasing domestic cryptocurrency, while US politicians are holding back the development of social network stablecoin due to regulatory concerns.

    Despite Mu's optimistic comments, it is not yet clear when exactly the Chinese digital currency will be issued.


    Technical Market Overview:
    The BTC/USD pair has been trading inside of the narrow range for some time now, consolidating the recent gains after the bounce from the level of $9,049. The local technical support located at the level of $11,027 has been tested during the consolidation cycle and the low of this test has been labeled as the low of the wave 2. It means the market is ready to continue the uptrend towards the new highs, but first, it will have to break out above the levels of $11,855, $12,008 and $12,269. Please notice, that the wave 2 might evolve into a more complex and time-consuming pattern, so patience is needed while keeping an eye on the wave development.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $13,583
    WR2 - $12,879
    WR1 - $12,118

    Weekly Pivot - $11,389
    WS1 - $10,550
    WS2 - $9,816
    WS3 - $9,007


    Trading Recommendations:
    The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree.

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    Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 13 August 2019

    Crypto Industry News:
    The Indian telecommunications service provider Reliance Jio Infocomm Limited (known as Jio) has committed to building what it describes as one of the largest Blockchain networks in the world.

    Speaking at the company's 42nd AGM on August 12, President and Managing Director Shri Mukesh D. Ambani said Blockchain technology is one of the three main areas of expansion for Jio. Since its debut in 2015, the company has become one of the main Indian mobile networks, with a current user base of over 330 million people.

    "Over the next 12 months, Jio will install one of the largest Blockchain networks in the world in India, with tens of thousands of nodes operating from day one " - Ambani promised.

    His comments came at a time when India is opposed to a plan to ban cryptocurrencies while supporting Blockchain technology at the state level.

    External commentators have joined the angry local cryptographic industry amidst central bank warnings that interacting with unsanctioned tokens such as Bitcoin may be a criminal offense in the future

    Meanwhile, Ambani focused on the role of Blockchain in strengthening the position of Indian consumers, without delving into the subject.

    "Using Blockchain, we also have the opportunity to invent a completely new data privacy model in which Indian data, especially customer data, is owned and controlled by Indians rather than corporations, especially international corporations " - he said.


    Technical Market Overview:
    The ETH/USD pair has broken out of the descending channel around the level of $208.50 and now is trying to continue the rally higher towards the level of $221.50, which is the technical resistance. The low was made at the level of $196.98 and it was labeled as wave (c) of the wave (2) of higher degree, which indicated, the market might be ready to continue the trend. In order to do this, the price action must be more impulsive and move towards the nearest technical resistance and break through it. Otherwise, the corrective move to the downside will evolve into a more complex and time-consuming pattern. So far there is no sign of bullish engagement in order to regain control of the market price and the move up is starting to look like a failure. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $205.77.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $274.14
    WR2 - $256.36
    WR1 - $233.10

    Weekly Pivot - $214.72
    WS1 - $193.28
    WS2 - $173.99
    WS3 - $150.66


    Trading Recommendations:
    The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later. We are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the bullish momentum.

    e-s-130819.jpg



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  9. #39
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    Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on August 13th. India is preparing for a complete ban on cryptocurrencies at the legislative level

    Bitcoin – 4H.
    b-k-130819.jpg

    As seen on the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin performed a fall to the correction level of 23.6% ($11094) and a double retreat from it. As a result, on August 12, the new growth of bitcoin quotations in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% ($11544) began. From the main news of the last days, I would note the complete ban on the issue, turnover, and payments using cryptocurrencies, which is being prepared in the Indian Parliament. Previously, the Central Bank struggled with cryptocurrencies by prohibiting commercial banks from opening accounts for the use of cryptocurrencies and any individuals and legal entities that use them. Now, cryptocurrencies can be banned completely.

    Meanwhile, debates continue among BTC analysts, experts, and investors about whether the US government can completely ban bitcoin? Opinions differ, as usual. Some experts believe that it was possible to ban bitcoin a few years ago when it was not so popular. Now, there is evidence that the "elite" are starting to use bitcoin, and cryptocurrency is also starting to be used as a means of preserving value, it is completely impossible to ban it. However, it is possible that the Fed will want to establish control over the cryptocurrency segment, and the Ministry of Finance is already taxing any transactions with bitcoin since it is considered an asset, not money. The second cornerstone issue, causing much controversy, is the future of BTC. Here, again, opinions differ. Starting from the forecasts that bitcoin will cost $250,000, ending with the fact that the cryptocurrency will go into the shadows. Although most of the forecasts predict "cue" further growth. It is also noted that the correlation of bitcoin with any of the currencies has recently weakened. First of all, it concerns the US dollar. This is due to the fact that bitcoin is increasingly becoming independent. Previously, there was a very strong correlation with the yuan and the dollar, now it is getting weaker every day. Moreover, some experts are beginning to call Bitcoin a more interesting investment tool than, for example, gold. They explain this by the fact that gold will continue to be mined, but the number of bitcoin coins is still limited.

    The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 10, 2019, and July 17, 2019.


    Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
    Bitcoin has made a return to the Fibo level of 50.0%. Thus, I recommend buying a cryptocurrency with the target of $11544 and $12142, with the stop-loss order under the level of 50.0%, since the rebound from the level of $11057 was performed. I recommend selling bitcoin with the target of $10585, and with the stop-loss order above the level of $11057, if the closure is performed under the correction level of 50.0%.


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  10. #40
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    BTC. Down break of the 5-day consolidation
    13 August 2019

    Industry news:
    Blockchain interoperability network ICON has announced a token giveaway in the run-up to its eagerly anticipated community elections. 3 million ICX tokens (about ~$600,000 USD) will be disbursed to members of the ICON community throughout the pre-voting period, which commences on August 26.

    Daily view:
    b-p-130819.jpg

    Based on the 4H time-frame, I found new momentum on the MACD and Stochastic oscillator, which is sign of the underlying bearish pressure. I also found failed test of the resistance at the price of $12.350, which is good confirmation of the weak buying.


    Trading recommendation:
    According to current condition, my advice is to watch for selling opportunities with the downward targets at the price of $10.620 and $9.40,


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