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Thread: Cryptocurrency Analysis

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    US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen criticizes Bitcoin again

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    Janet Yellen, who recently became the US Treasury Secretary, and previously served as the head of the Federal Reserve, is one of the most ardent critics of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. According to Yellen, voiced just yesterday, the cryptocurrency is not effective for making transactions, since its price is not stable. Yellen acknowledged that blockchain technology can indeed provide the fastest and cheapest possible transfers, but there are many issues that governments need to study around consumer protection and money laundering. In other words, the authorities around the world will seek to take bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies out of the legalized sphere of activity, or will seek to create public alternatives to bitcoin, that is, digital dollars or digital euros. This is not the first time Yellen has promised to closely monitor the cryptocurrency market. Some experts also hold the view that the authorities will not leave bitcoin alone and will seek to crush it. For example, this is the opinion of investor Michael Burry, who previously predicted the collapse of the US mortgage market. The economist made several calculations, in which he clearly showed and explained that the US authorities will continue to increase the money supply to overcome the economic crisis. He also said that he does not believe in bitcoin as a global digital currency for the whole world. From Burry's point of view, the scale of bitcoin is not enough to achieve this goal. "I believe that the distant future for a decentralized currency is hazy. Centralized governments will not want to give up their monopolies on their own currencies. But in the short term, anything is possible. therefore, I do not go short on Bitcoin, " Burry said.

    Barclays investment director William Hobbs said that the markets are increasingly behaving like sectarians towards bitcoin. He said that the future of bitcoin is uncertain, as central banks have sought to stimulate their economies over the past decade and have cut rates to unprecedented lows. However, that may change when rates start to rise. Bitcoin can then become a "wingless bird." Now, investors and traders are looking for ways to earn money, as banal deposits no longer perform this function due to negative or zero rates. Therefore, bitcoin is in the price. But that may change once the economy is on the path to solid growth. Hobbs also stressed that Barclays is not going to invest in bitcoin, as "it is several times more volatile than our riskiest asset class-emerging market stocks." From the point of view of the investment director, to get into the Barclays toolkit, an asset must have a positive return and be attractive for risk diversification. "Perhaps one day bitcoin will become the owner of these qualities, but now it can not boast of them," Hobbs said.




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    Paolo Greco
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    Traders have reduced long Bitcoin positions in the amount of $ 3.5 billion.

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    Yesterday, Bitcoin began a powerful downward correction and many traders immediately had this question, "Is this the moment to reset long positions which will lead to a drop in the bitcoin exchange rate by 80-90%? The experts and pseudo-experts of the cryptocurrency market say who are often just the owners of the "cue ball", which means that it is profitable for them to warm up interest in this cryptocurrency so that it continues to grow, bitcoin can fall at any time almost to the values of $ 5,000 to $ 6,000. Bitcoin has no cost price or fair price, so it can fall as low as you want. This was already the case in 2017, and everyone remembers it. In 2021, everyone clearly understands that bitcoin is only an investment tool that leads everyone to buy with one goal in mind and it is to earn money. And everyone understands that sooner or later it will collapse in price. Companies like Tesla or Microstrategy are no exception. According to official data from cryptocurrency exchanges, yesterday, within one hour, traders closed long positions for $ 410 million. This is the official data. However, given the fact that the total capitalization of bitcoin is already about 1 trillion and it is likely that more closed long positions would be needed to drop the quotes by $ 10,000 dollars downward. Therefore, it is absolutely possible that purchases were closed for several billion dollars or even tens of billions. However, a little later, this information was published by the exchanges – the total closing of long positions amounted to $ 3.5 billion. Thus, one of the major players considered that he would have enough profit from the operation of buying and selling bitcoin which has increased in price five times over the past few months. Therefore, now everything will depend on other market players. The game begins on the nerves. Holders of a small number of bitcoins may be afraid that now the cryptocurrency will collapse down and start getting rid of their coins. However, due to their number, this is enough for bitcoin to continue its decline. But when the big players start selling bitcoin then the cryptocurrency will definitely collapse. Therefore, the next few days for the "cue ball" can be extremely important. If the market's nerves hold, bitcoin will be able to continue its growth in the direction of the magic figure of $ 100,000 per coin. If not, it will collapse. These days, the comments of the whales of the cryptocurrency market like Elon Musk or other major holders or experts in this field will be especially important or just people that the market listens to. As discussed earlier, the market is extremely impressionable and is ready to respond with bitcoin purchases if it understands that larger players are also buying it at this time.



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    Bill Gates: I don't own bitcoin and have taken a neutral view on it

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    Currently, many traders and experts are wondering what will happen after the correction of bitcoin at the level of $10,000. One of the richest men in the world and the largest shareholder of Microsoft, as well as its co-founder, Bill Gates, expressed his opinion on bitcoin. Gates believes that digital currencies and blockchain technology are the future. However, according to Gates, currently, bitcoin is still developing and more steps should be taken so that bitcoin could be used by a wider audience. For example, the user should be able to cancel the transaction. "There's some really good technology in terms of sharing databases and verifying transactions that is talked about as blockchain, that is a good thing," Gates told CNBC. The tycoon himself is neutral about bitcoin as he stated. In an interview with CNBC, Gates said, "I don't own bitcoin. I'm not short bitcoin." The billionaire also said that his foundation is actively engaged in digital payment issues that can reduce transaction costs but the difference between bitcoin and blockchain technology is significant. Gate's foundation is trying to find a solution so that users can cancel the transaction and trace who is doing the certain activity to eliminate tax evasion and illegal activities. As for the future value of bitcoin, the former CEO of Microsoft believes that it can either grow or fall. Everything will depend on the degree of hype.

    At the same time, analysts at JPMorgan are expecting bitcoin to fall. In their opinion, traders will not be able to keep the level of $ 50,000 until the market volatility significantly decreases. The bank's chief strategist Nikolaos Panigirtsoglu said that since January 2021, bitcoin has been growing exclusively due to the influx of retail investors. However, bitcoin could remain at high levels for a long period of time if the number of small investors is reduced to a minimum. Mr. Panigirtsoglu believes that small traders and investors will sooner or later start to leave the market, which will cause a collapse of bitcoin. Now investments in bitcoin are overwhelmingly high. However, if the situation changes even slightly, traders will immediately start withdrawing their money from bitcoin. The price for an asset will remain stable when it does not fall under the waves of mass sales. At the time of writing this article, bitcoin is worth exactly $50,000 per coin and it continues to decline. The nearest target for the fall is the Kijun-sen line, which currently is at $45,000. From our point of view, the fate of bitcoin will be determined in the coming days. If the current correction remains a correction, then the cryptocurrency will again reach $100,000 per coin. If not, investors should brace for a wave of mass sell-off of the number one cryptocurrency, which will definitely send other cryptocurrencies down too.



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    Technical analysis of Litecoin/USD for February 23, 2021

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    After a rally to 237, Litecoin is making a correction towards the neck-line near 178.70. We currently see support near 191.43 and again at the former neck-line resistance, which now acts as support near 178.70. Once this correction is complete renewed strength is expected for a rally towards the S/H/S bottom-target near 325 with the possibility of an extension closer to 415.

    Short-term a break above minor resistance at 210.00 will indicate that the correction from 237 has completed and the next impulsive rally higher towards 325 is in motion.


    Trading recommendation:
    Buy Litecoin near the 178.70 - 191.43 support-area with your stop placed at 122.50 for the next rally higher to 325.




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    Torben Melsted
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    Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for February 23, 2021

    Crypto Industry News:
    The recent correction in the cryptocurrency market has been the largest we've seen in a while. While most digital assets have experienced severe drops, the price of ethereum on the Kraken exchange has experienced a real rollercoaster.

    The exchange's trading platform today recorded an event that has certainly made many hearts beat faster. Ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency, has experienced a flash crash.

    In one hour's candle, ETH dropped to $ 700 - a massive 63% drop from the stock market's daily high. The volume of this hourly candle was also significant. A total of 75,500 ETH worth around $ 131.5 million passed from the opening to the closing by traders.

    As always in the case of flash crashes, the price rose again after the decline and remained at a level adequate to other averages on other exchanges.


    Technical Market Outlook:
    The ETH/USD pair has started a sell off recently and the price has fallen to the level of $1,540 (at the time of writing the article). The sell off was dynamic and sudden, so all of the levels will now act as a technical resistance for the market. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,478 and $1,438. The nearest technical resistance is located at the level of $1,648. The weekly and monthly time frame trend is still up. The bullish scenario is valid as long as the level of $1,412 is broken.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $2,476
    WR2 - $2,254
    WR1 - $2,101

    Weekly Pivot - $1,876
    WS1 - $1,724
    WS2 - $1,492
    WS3 - $1,337


    Trading Recommendations:
    The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $2,100, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. Please notice, the up trend starting to go vertical, so the volatility will be higher than average. The bullish scenario is valid as long as the level of $1,412 is broken.

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    Sebastian Seliga
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    Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for February 23, 2021

    Crypto Industry News:
    The high volume of the transfer to the Bitcoin exchange wallet on February 21 aroused many questions and controversies.

    The entity (or group of entities) has transferred approximately 28,000 BTC worth more than $ 1.5 billion to an address that is said to be part of the OKEx OTC service. A certain @ThisIsBullish on Twitter noted that the OTC address had additionally assigned BTC to several wallets, one of which allegedly belongs to a "rich" address that has been linked to multiple cloud mining and money laundering scams in Asia.

    Stock exchanges have seen huge drops in BTC reserves recently. They fell by around 635,000 compared to the March 2020 peak. They largely coincided with a period of increases in the BTC / USD exchange rate, which soared by around 1,200% over the same period.

    The OKEx deposit as mentioned above came in the meantime when bitcoin was showing signs of fatigue. The cryptocurrency hit a new milestone above $ 58,000 on Sunday, leaving the author of the tweet concerned about the prospect of an imminent sell-off.


    Technical Market Outlook:
    The BTC/USD pair has crashed almost 20% in 24h, from the all time high at $58, 258 to $48,195. Currently, the market is testing the lower channel boundary and if this level is violated, then the next target for bears is seen at the level of $45,710 and $43,714. The overbalance of price is obvious as the level of $51,775 had been violated as well. The bulls are trying to protect the level of $50,000 as the main technical support, but it looks like they are losing this battle.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $75,571
    WR2 - $67,184
    WR1 - $63,246

    Weekly Pivot - $54,169
    WS1 - $50,671
    WS2 - $42,010
    WS3 - $37,979


    Trading Recommendations:
    The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $60,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $41,125 is clearly broken.

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    The Bitcoin sale has begun. Hedge Fund Trading Level

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    The sell-off of bitcoin on Monday is a sign that the increase in the price of bitcoin this year has prompted some investors in digital assets to take profits.

    The price of bitcoin fell by 8% on Monday, and it was the biggest decline in a month.

    According to the analytics company Glassnode, about 40,000 BTC (worth $2.1 billion) have been transferred to major crypto exchanges since Friday, leading to an increase in bitcoin reserves to levels not seen since late January.

    CEO of South Korean cryptocurrency company CryptoQuant Ki Young-ju told CoinDesk that the bitcoin flow was mostly going to the US company Gemini, which received about 34,000 BTC before the market sell-off on Monday.

    The blockchain data exhibits a flow of about 28,000 BTC to Gemini around 11:00 UTC. According to CryptoQuant, on Sunday (19:00 UTC) New York time, the price of the cryptocurrency reached the level of $58,000.

    Monday's price decline coincided with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's speech to the New York Times' DealBook DC Policy Project that bitcoin is not widely used as a "transaction mechanism."

    According to Yellen, cryptocurrency is an "extremely inefficient way" to conduct transactions, and "the amount of energy consumed to process these transactions is staggering."

    "Fixing positions can lead us to the $40,000 - $42,000 level, which is the trading level of a hedge fund," Singapore-based QCP Capital said on its Telegram channel. "If the $40,000 level doesn't hold, the bulls will lose."

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    How deep will it go? According to David Lifshitz, chief investment officer at the Paris-based quantitative trading company ExoAlpha, if things turn bad in the short term, bitcoin may see a price of 30,000, and this already looks like an absolute bottom.

    CoinDesk's Omkar Godbole notes that such a drop is a macroeconomic factor that can explain the change in prices. US inflation-adjusted bond yields are rising, with real yields turning positive for the first time since June 2020. This supports the bullish sentiment for the US dollar, and investors, reducing risks, are investing in treasury bonds. When profitability rises, this is exactly a bearish case for gambling like Bitcoin and stocks.



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    Evaluating cryptocurrency through technological breakthroughs

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    Global e-commerce was rising by 19% per year and managed to reach $ 6.5 trillion before 2020 ended. The digital/mobile wallets were rapidly becoming the preferred payment method in e-commerce, although they were forecasted to fail. But now, they are projected to occupy 52% of the market by 2023.

    In this context, blockchain technology and crypto assets began to gain popularity again. As the trade war between the US and China strengthened in 2019, governments around the world began to explore the possibility of digital currencies in response to the growing political and economic instability caused by the fluctuations in the US dollar and its impact on international trade. Moreover, the younger generation found the financial technology world more attractive and promising, since blockchain technology ensures data security and reliability.

    Some cryptocurrencies/tokens, such as Bitcoin, have started to provide various types of value proposition as an investment in an asset that has generated large returns. At the same time, the majority hailed the underlying blockchain technology as revolutionary. It should be recalled that the cryptocurrency has been heavily criticized due to its growth.

    Elon Musk, Tesla's CEO and Bitcoin investor, warned people not to invest their savings in cryptocurrency. A good investor who understands how the crypto ecosystem functions always advises investing only 1-5% of their disposable income in it.




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    Dramatic Tuesday for cryptocurrencies: Morning Review on 02/23/21

    Yesterday, the cryptocurrency market began a downward correction. Closer to the middle of the European trading session on Tuesday, the fall turned into "falling knives". Over the past four hours, the top coins have lost almost as much as they did all of Monday. The daily decline of bitcoin is estimated at almost 19%, Ethereum has already lost 23.83%, Ripple has fallen by 30.03%, Bitcoin Cash has declined by 32%, and Litecoin has weakened by 23.63%. The main question that now interests traders is where the stop will be.

    Bitcoin has dropped to $ 45,000 per coin. The quotes at the moment broke through the local support level of 45553.17, after which they partially recovered. From what point the big players will start buying out the cheaper bitcoin, it is still unclear. As the nearest support for BTCUSD, it is worth considering the horizontal 41980.24, if the current level of 45553.17, marked with a red dotted line is broken.

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    Bitcoin Cash broke through the level of 465.48 during the fall, but did not gain a foothold above it. This is for now, as the weakening of quotations may continue. Against this background, it is worth considering the 406.38 horizontal as the nearest support for BCH USD.

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    Ripple fell, reaching almost the support level of 0.3512. So far, some of the losses have been restored, and XRP USD quotes have returned to the range of 0.4348 - 0.5564. The probability that the pair will stay in this range is low. Therefore, the level of 0.3512 should be considered as the nearest technical reference point to the south.

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    Ethereum fell below the level of 1369.23 today. After the losses were partially returned, the price of ETH USD moved into a wide range, limited by the support level of 1436.48 and the resistance level of 61.8 on Fibo Expansion. Whether its lower bound will be able to stand, and for how long is an open question. So far, the horizontal of 1369.23 remains an actual benchmark for the decline of the second cryptocurrency.

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    Litecoin fell below the level of 171.25 today, but then returned to the corridor above it. Now the local resistance for LTC USD is the horizontal 186.48. If the decline resumes, the pair can move south up to the support level of 146.04.

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    Colossal losses of traders and a sharp decline in the market: causes, consequences, and the uncertain future of bitcoin

    Bitcoin made a real breakthrough in February 2021 after repeatedly rewriting the record of maximum value. The interest of large investors, the development of software to expand the possibilities of cryptocurrency, as well as wide publicity in the global media have caused a significant increase in the price of bitcoin. However, many experts agreed that such a sharp jump in the price of the main digital asset is not justified and a price correction will soon await the cryptocurrency.

    As analysts at JPMorgan and Elon Musk suggested, the price of bitcoin turned out to be overvalued, and in the past few days, the market has been rapidly adjusting the quotes of bitcoin. Having reached a record high of $58,300 on the weekend, bitcoin began to fall rapidly, and over the past three days has fallen in price by $10,000. The main crypto asset has leveled off a little and holds indicators at $48,400. Over the past day alone, the cost of bitcoin fell by 12%, which caused colossal losses for retailers - more than $4.4 billion.

    Due to the cryptocurrency decline, exchanges have liquidated the positions of 466,000 users. The largest loss of a single trader was $20.6 million. Almost 90% of closed trades were long, which suggests that traders were hoping to increase their profits, counting on further growth in major cryptocurrencies. Transactions for $2 billion were paired with bitcoin, another $1 billion in closed positions on Ethereum.

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    The sharp drop in the price of bitcoin turned out to be very painful, but necessary for further growth. Despite the huge losses for traders, the price correction pacified the fervor of bitcoin, which clearly did not match the price of $58,000. The continued growth of the cryptocurrency was associated with the situational mood of investors, who were inspired by the Tesla Motors case and began to storm the cryptocurrency market against the backdrop of good economic indicators. In this regard, bitcoin "suffered" more than the others, because most of the investments were directed specifically to it.

    Bitcoin showed signs of independent growth and even some resilience. However, the past few weeks have begun to transform this advantage into a clear disadvantage. The first digital asset could become hostage to investment and economic sentiment in the global financial markets. Its growth and development would be directly dependent on the current indicators of economic growth, and, as a result, the asset would turn into a seasonal investment instrument showing abnormally unstable numbers.

    The market correction, to some extent, interrupted this vicious circle, allowing bitcoin to take the pause necessary for its further growth. We assumed that the growth of the first cryptocurrency would continue until the end of February, but the digital asset significantly outstripped the wildest expectations, reaching $58,000 within a few days. There is every reason to believe that bitcoin will reach $67,000 in the spring. The more global growth of the first cryptocurrency and the entire digital asset market will depend on investor behavior and future Visa and Mastercard projects, which could stall if bitcoin continues to show dependence on sharp and short-term injections from large companies.



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