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Thread: Cryptocurrency Analysis

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    Cryptocurrency Analysis

    Greetings!

    This thread shall provide you with up-to-date market analyses on cryptocurrency. We hope that you could use them to guide you in your trading activities.

    Thank you and have a productive trading experience!

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    Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on July 30. The United States is preparing to tax Bitcoin owners

    Bitcoin – 4H.
    b-k-300719.jpg

    As seen on the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin remains under the correction level of 38.2% ($9558) and left the limits of the "narrowing triangle" through its lower border. This moment allows traders to count on the continuation of the fall in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% ($8744). Given the nature of the latest news from the US that the government wants to tax all cryptocurrency owners and requires them to provide income reports, Bitcoin could indeed continue to fall. In recent years, the "bubble" is often inflated due to the actions of large investors on cryptocurrency exchanges, the growth of the "cue ball" is often artificial, unconfirmed by fundamental data or any changes in this area. But after periods of unjustified growth, Bitcoin quotes begin to fall, and often these drops are completely logical. In general, the behavior of Bitcoin is very much like certain segments of oil. Also, do not forget that Bitcoin is valued in dollars, and this currency shows a long and steady growth, and after summing up the results of the Fed meeting tomorrow, July 31, the dollar may strengthen even more, which will lead to the fall of the "cue ball". However, much will depend on the Fed, Jerome Powell and his psychological resilience to attacks and criticism of Donald Trump.

    The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 2, 2019, and July 10, 2019.


    Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
    Bitcoin has complied with the rebound from the retracement level of 38.2% ($9558). Thus, I recommend selling the cryptocurrency with the target of $8744, with the stop-loss order above the level of 38.2%. I recommend buying Bitcoin with a target of $10478, and with a stop-loss order under the level of $9558, if the closing above the correction level of 38.2% is performed.


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    Analysis of BITCOIN for July 30, 2019

    Bitcoin consolidation has been expanding since the price reached the $9,400 support after impulsive bearish pressure. After breaking below $10,000 with a daily close, the price is expected to push towards $8,500 observing the momentum. In light of the recent price correction, a counter-move to push towards $10,000 is more probable.

    After a sharp decline, the bitcoin price found support near $9,120. There has been a very little movement in Bitcoin prices over the past 24 hours. It has ranged between $9,600 and $9,430 in a very tight channel with little indication of a breakout in either direction. A trade volume is dropping off, currently down to $13 billion. BTC is holding on to support at the moment as the two-day consolidation rolls into a third one. From its peak of $13,800 last month, BTC has declined 31 percent to current prices. This would be a perfectly normal reaction from the parabolic price rise in recent weeks. In fact, BTC has experienced greater corrections of up to 40 percent, so further losses could be imminent.

    The key thing to note on the larger time frame charts is the lower lows. The bull market remains established, provided that Bitcoin does not plunge below $6k which could mean a major trend reversal. A drop to $8k would still mean that BTC has surged 100 percent in four months this year. This volatile week has marked an extension of the downward pressure that Bitcoin first incurred in late-June when BTC sharply moved to $13,800. This move has significantly bolstered bears and has jeopardized the upwards momentum that Bitcoin has faced since earlier this year. Additionally, this choppy price action over the past several weeks has allowed BTC to establish a new price range roughly between $9,350 and $9,650 which is likely to persist in the near future.

    To sum it up, Bitcoin still has chances to push higher as it remains above $8,500-9,000 with a daily close in the coming days. Currently trading above $9,400 indicates further upward pressure and consolidation explains the volatility and indecision in the Bitcoin market. Ahead of Fed's rate cut tomorrow, the crypto market is set to trade under higher volatility. Nevertheless, Bitcoin has a greater probability to surge higher in the short term.


    TECHNICAL OVERVIEW:
    The price is currently trading at the level slightly above $9,400 being held by dynamic levels as resistance. The price is trading inside the Kumo Cloud dynamic resistance which is needed to be broken above for further upward pressure to push the price to $10,000 or higher in the coming days. The price also formed Bullish Divergence along the way which also signals upward pressure. As the price remains above $8,500-9,000 with a daily close, BTC is likely to extend further upward pressure.

    b-r-300719.jpg


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    BTC. Bearish flag in creation
    30 July 2019

    Industry news:
    Announced by Pundi X in a blog post on Monday, the firms have entered a symbiotic relationship regarding their wallet tech, with Pundi X integrating with Samsung's Blockchain Wallet and making its XWallet available to the Galaxy S10 phone's blockchain app options.

    "This presents a unique opportunity to push blockchain technology and blockchain-based digital assets into the mainstream, reaching the millions of Samsung smartphone users around the world," firm says in the post.


    Technical view:
    b-p-300719.jpg
    BTC is trading sideways at the price of $9.550 and it seems like it is building a bear flag for more downside. Pat attention on important resistance levels at $9.600 and $9.700.

    Technical picture:

    Red rising line – Bear flag pattern in creation

    Gray rectangle – Resistance 1 ($9.600)

    Blue rectangle – Resistance 2 ($9.700)

    Orange horizontal line – Main swing low ($9.101)

    Stochastic oscillator is showing bearish divergence, which is sign for potential buyers exhaustion near the level of $9.600. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities with the downward target at $9.101.


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    Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 31 July 2019

    Crypto Industry News:
    Fortaleza, the main city of Northeast Brazil, will start to accept Bitcoin as a form of payment for bus tickets until the end of 2019.

    Local transport services have announced an initiative to enable citizens to pay for bus tickets with credit and debit cards, as well as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. This initiative aims to reduce operational costs in the ticket system.

    The entity, known as the Cooperative of Independent Transport of Passengers of State of Ceara (Cootraps), said passengers would be able to pay for their travels with Bitcoin via smartphones by scanning the QR code.

    While Cootraps reportedly stated that the incoming system would also accept other cryptos in addition to Bitcoin, the co-operative did not explain any further details in this matter.

    However, Carlos Roberio Sampaio, CFO at Cootraps, reportedly said that the new payment methods would reduce the amount of bureaucracy required and attract more users because the unit expects to simplify payment procedures by processing them using electronic coupons. In addition, passengers will be able to pay for tickets without disturbing the driver's work.


    Technical Market Overview:
    The BTC/USD pair has bounced out of the trading range and currently is testing the trendline resistance around the level of $9,753. Any breakout above this trendline will be considered bullish breakout with a target at the level of $10,166. The increasing momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $11,468
    WR2 - $11,040
    WR1 - $10,062

    Weekly Pivot - $9,661
    WS1 - $8,704
    WS2 - $8,287
    WS3 - $7,289


    Trading recommendations:
    The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up.

    b-s-310719.jpg



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    Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 31 July 2019

    Crypto Industry News:
    The US Department of Defense (DoD) aims to implement Blockchain's cybersecurity solution as part of its digital modernization strategy.

    DoD has published plans for Blockchain technology in its four-year plan entitled "Digital DoD modernization strategy: Strategic plan for information management FY19-23."

    According to the report, the Department's research branch, the Advanced Defense Research Projects Agency (DARPA), is currently involved in at least two cybercrime exploration projects using Blockchain.

    First, DARPA is experimenting with Blockchain to build a new - or improved - communication and transaction platform. The stated intentions for this platform include communication between the units and the headquarters, as well as between intelligence officers and the Pentagon.

    Second, DARPA tries to create an "unclassified code" using Blockchain technology, citing the ability of Blockchain to collect information about villains who are trying to break into databases.

    Earlier, in February, DARPA announced plans to organize a two-day Blockchain workshop. DARPA was particularly interested in the study of consensus protocols not requiring consent. The organization also noted that there are potentially valuable use cases for Blockchain in storing data, saying: "The technologies of distributed consensus protocols have been revolutionized thanks to their significant role in cryptocurrency technologies and Blockchain. These technologies have dramatic implications for security and resilience when storing sensitive data and calculations, including for the Department of Defense".


    Technical Market Overview:
    Not much has changed at this market since the beginning of the week as the ETH/USD pair still keeps trading inside of a narrow price range between two levels of $189.91 - $223.38. The level of the local support at $199.68 has been tested, but the price did not break below but bounced back to the range. The bulls did not make any decision regarding the possible move higher, so the bullish momentum is decreasing as the price goes nowhere fast. In order to continue the move upwards, the bulls must break through the Fibonacci retracement levels located at $223.38, $233.77 and $244.16. Oterwise, the market will stay inside of the trading range or will be pushed lower by bears to test the technical support at the level of $189.91 again.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $247.21
    WR2 - $236.28
    WR1 - $220.47

    Weekly Pivot - $209.37
    WS1 - $191.97
    WS2 - $182.25
    WS3 - $161.51


    Trading recommendations:
    The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later.

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    Analysis of Bitcoin for July 31, 2019: price pushes above $9,500

    The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision today, and ahead of it bitcoin has managed to regain certain momentum over USD, having resided at the edge of $9,400 area recently. Investors from all around the world are waiting for the US rate cut which is likely to provide support to bitcoin.

    Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been facing a bout of choppy trading as of late that has led bitcoin's price into a key trading range that will likely set the tone for the overall crypto trends in the coming days and weeks. Moreover, bitcoin's fundamentals appear to be building strength, as the cryptocurrency's hash rate has now reached a fresh all-time high which may correlate with positive price action in the immediate future. Although it is unclear for now as to whether or not this bullish fundamental factor will be enough to propel bitcoin's price higher, the upward or downward breaks are likely to determine the market trend in the nearest future.

    Additionally, bitcoin and other digital currencies are finally entering the mainstream political discourse. The launch of Facebook's Libra lit somewhat a fire to address the issues that the Silicon Valley-backed cryptocurrency could bring. US Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin echoed Trump's concerns in his own comments. Mnuchin claimed that he did not believe USD to be an asset for criminals. He remarked that cryptocurrencies should be subject to more stringent regulations to deter illicit activity.

    On the other hand, the US ADP non-farm employment change report is going to be published today. The number of jobs is expected to increase to 150k from the previous figure of 102k, while the employment cost Index is expected to remain unchanged at 0.7%. Ahead of the NFP on Friday which is expected to have a dovish result with a decrease to 163k from the previous figure of 224k, today the Federal Reserve is expected to cut its rate to 2.25% from the previous value of 2.50%.

    As of the current scenario, USD, having dovish bias as the interest rate cut is highly probable today, is likely to lose ground against bitcoin which is expected regain momentum and push above $10,000 area. However, certain spikes and increased volatility may be observed along the way.


    TECHNICAL OVERVIEW:
    The price has bounced off the $9,400 area with a daily close recently which is currently being carried by the dynamic levels like 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line as support along the way. The price has breached above $9,500 and is heading towards $10,000 area. However, the Bearish Continuous Divergence is evolving along the way, so the price is expected to retrace before breaking above $10,000 area with a daily close in the coming days. As the price remains above $9,000 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.


    TECHNICAL LEVELS:

    SUPPORT- 9,000, 9,400, 9,500

    RESISTANCE- 10,000, 10,500, 11,000, 11,500, 12,000

    CURRENT BIAS- Bullish

    MOMENTUM- Volatile

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    Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on July 31. Bitcoin, the most ambiguous tool, can move into growth again

    Bitcoin – 4H.
    b-k-310719.jpg

    As seen on the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin made a return to the correction level of 100.0% ($9679). However, the bearish divergence of the CCI indicator allows traders to count on some Bitcoin fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% ($8744). However, the passage of the peak of that divergence will cancel it, and the growth of BTC will continue in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% ($10478). According to many experts, Bitcoin in the long term will only continue to rise in price. In 2020, there will be a reduction in the remuneration of miners for the mined block. Now, it is 12.5 BTC, and will be – 6.25 BTC. The last time a similar event happened, in 2016, Bitcoin prices soared 10 times. However, the question: Is it possible that an unconfirmed cryptocurrency, which is often used for illegal purposes, will rise in price simply on the basis of a decrease in supply? It seems so. Of course, halving will take place only next year, and the "cue" and other cryptocurrencies still cannot exist on their own. That is, if the governments of the largest countries of the world prohibit the turnover of cryptocurrencies, it will already entail the collapse of their value. Thus, we can say that Bitcoin is growing, because it is still allowed to do so. India, however, has already banned cryptocurrencies. Perhaps in the future, other countries will follow its example.

    The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 2, 2019, and July 10, 2019.

    Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
    Bitcoin made a return to the correction level of 100.0% ($9679). Thus, I recommend selling the cryptocurrency with the target of $8744, with the stop-loss order above the level of 38.2%, if there is a new rebound from the level of 100.0%. I recommend buying Bitcoin with a view to $10478, and with a stop-loss order under the level of $9558, if the closing above the correction level of 38.2% is performed.


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    BTC. Resistance zone on the test
    31 July 2019

    Industry news:
    While other cryptocurrency exchanges work on the development within their exchange, Kraken took a huge leap as it acquired Interchange, accounting reconciliation and reporting service provider for cryptocurrency hedge funds, asset managers, and fund administrators. The exchange did not disclose any financial details about the deal.

    BTC did rally to the level of $10.000 and there is a good resistance there. Resistance trendline and previous swing high are great area for potential selling opportunities. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities.


    Technical picture:
    b-p-310719.jpg

    Blur rectangle – Support ($9.080)

    Blue horizontal line – Resistance ($10.200)

    Blue horizontal line – Resistance 2 ($10.730)

    Blue line – Pitchfork warning line 1

    On the 4H time-frame I found that Stochastic oscillator is in overbought condition and that there is potential down flip, which is sign that buying at this stage looks risky. MACD oscillator is still in the negative territory below the zero, which is another indication for potential downside.


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    Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 01 August 2019

    Crypto Industry News:
    The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has flagged an online scam offering Bitcoin.

    On July 31, the Singapore Central Bank and the Financial Supervisory Authority issued an official warning stating that the agency had become aware of a website that invited Internet users to invest in Bitcoin through an article containing falsified information.

    According to MAS, the scam website refers to fabricated statements falsely attributed to Goh Chok Tong, a local politician who in 1990-2004 was the second prime minister of Singapore. The statements were "either false or removed from the context and used in a misleading manner" - noted the regulator.

    As reported by MAS, the name of the former prime minister was used to persuade people to pay at least $ 250 to a trading platform called Bitcoin Loophole, which claims to perform automated transactions on behalf of users. The platform also demanded credit card or bank account details, the regulator added, recommending the public to exercise special care and avoid sending any information to website owners.

    In January 2019, the MAS issued a warning against many fake websites claiming that the Singapore Government officially accepts cryptocurrencies. As in this new case, the fraudulent program was distributed via various websites and offered opportunities to invest in the crypto using false information.


    Technical Market Overview:
    The BTC/USD pair has broken the short-term trendline resistance and almost tested the technical resistance located at the level of $10,166. After the Shooting-Star candlestick pattern was made at the level of $10,109, the market reversed slightly and is currently trading around the level of $9,850. In order to continue the breakout, the bulls have to move higher towards the level of $10,166 and then towards the level of $10,636.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $11,468
    WR2 - $11,040
    WR1 - $10,062

    Weekly Pivot - $9,661
    WS1 - $8,704
    WS2 - $8,287
    WS3 - $7,289


    Trading recommendations:
    The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up.

    b-s-010819.jpg



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